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Friday, March 7, 2008 at 9:19 am by Darryl

Poll Analysis: Obama versus McCain with Polls in 50 States

Obama McCain
100.0% probability of winning 0.0% probability of winning
Mean of 309 electoral votes Mean of 229 electoral votes

Electoral College Map

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Sen. Barack Obama had a commanding lead over Sen. John McCain last Sunday. The simulated election analysis gave Obama a 96% chance of beating McCain in a general election. With new SurveyUSA head-to-head polls released for all fifty states, Obama has all but shut out McCain.

A new analysis of 10,000 simulated elections shows Obama winning 9,999 times and McCain winning only once. This suggests that Obama has a 100.0% probability of defeating McCain, if the election were held now.

The simulations yield the following distribution of electoral votes:

  • 10,000 simulations: Obama wins 100.0%, McCain wins 0.0%.
  • Average ( SE) EC votes for Obama: 308.5 ( 12.8)
  • Average (SE) EC votes for McCain: 229.5 ( 12.8)
  • Median (95% CI) EC votes for Obama: 309 (281, 333)
  • Median (95% CI) EC votes for McCain: 229 (205, 257)
State EC Votes # polls Total Votes % Obama % McCain Obama %wins McCain %wins
Alabama 9 2 1088 41.0 59.0 0.0 100.0
Alaska 3 1 561 47.2 52.8 9.2 90.8
Arizona 10 2 1032 43.5 56.5 0.0 100.0
Arkansas 6 1 504 38.3 61.7 0.0 100.0
California 55 2 1025 59.9 40.1 100.0 0.0
Colorado 9 2 998 54.6 45.4 100.0 0.0
Connecticut 7 1 570 61.8 38.2 100.0 0.0
Delaware 3 1 553 55.0 45.0 98.5 1.5
D.C. 3 0 (100) (0)
Florida 27 4 2364 46.3 53.7 0.0 100.0
Georgia 15 2 1086 44.3 55.7 0.0 100.0
Hawaii 4 1 546 66.3 33.7 100.0 0.0
Idaho 4 1 553 42.9 57.1 0.1 99.9
Illinois 21 1 546 65.9 34.1 100.0 0.0
Indiana 11 1 524 45.0 55.0 1.5 98.6
Iowa 7 4 2083 55.7 44.3 100.0 0.0
Kansas 6 2 1027 45.9 54.1 0.3 99.8
Kentucky 8 1 527 38.0 62.0 0.0 100.0
Louisiana 9 1 650 42.0 58.0 0.0 100.0
Maine 4 1 588 57.7 42.3 100.0 0.0
Maryland 10 2 1288 57.5 42.5 100.0 0.0
Massachusetts 12 2 1090 52.6 47.4 95.2 4.8
Michigan 17 2 1015 52.3 47.7 92.5 7.5
Minnesota 10 3 1522 56.6 43.4 100.0 0.0
Mississippi 6 1 591 43.1 56.9 0.1 99.9
Missouri 11 3 1479 49.5 50.5 31.4 68.6
Montana 3 1 551 45.4 54.6 1.6 98.4
Nebraska 5 1 542 48.3 51.7 20.3 79.7
Nevada 5 2 972 54.6 45.4 100.0 0.0
New Hampshire 4 2 998 53.9 46.1 99.6 0.5
New Jersey 15 4 3156 52.5 47.5 100.0 0.0
New Mexico 5 3 1478 54.0 46.0 99.9 0.1
New York 31 3 1567 57.6 42.4 100.0 0.0
North Carolina 15 3 1753 46.4 53.6 0.2 99.8
North Dakota 3 1 503 52.3 47.7 86.7 13.3
Ohio 20 5 3827 50.6 49.4 77.5 22.5
Oklahoma 7 1 569 40.1 59.9 0.0 100.0
Oregon 7 4 1849 53.6 46.4 100.0 0.0
Pennsylvania 21 6 4770 51.2 48.8 98.6 1.5
Rhode Island 4 2 1104 58.2 41.8 100.0 0.0
South Carolina 8 1 554 48.4 51.6 20.3 79.7
South Dakota 3 1 569 47.8 52.2 13.4 86.7
Tennessee 11 2 1065 41.6 58.4 0.0 100.0
Texas 34 3 3313 46.3 53.7 0.0 100.0
Utah 5 1 541 43.8 56.2 0.4 99.6
Vermont 3 2 948 65.6 34.4 100.0 0.0
Virginia 13 3 1579 50.2 49.8 58.7 41.3
Washington 11 3 1302 54.9 45.1 100.0 0.0
West Virginia 5 1 540 39.8 60.2 0.0 100.0
Wisconsin 10 4 2195 53.0 47.0 99.9 0.1
Wyoming 3 1 508 39.4 60.6 0.0 100.0

Details of the methods are given in the FAQ.

The most recent analysis in this and other match-ups can be found from this page.

Posted in Poll analysis, politics

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2 Responses to “Poll Analysis: Obama versus McCain with Polls in 50 States”

  1. James Erwin Says:

    Friday, March 7th, 2008 at 9:28 am

    As a side note, the Survey USA poll also has Obama picking up one of the split EC votes from Nebraska.

  2. bill rogan Says:

    Tuesday, March 11th, 2008 at 4:52 pm

    obama is a moron. i believe larry sinclair, vote clinton or mccain not obama

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