| Clinton |
McCain |
| 1.9% probability of winning |
97.9% probability of winning |
| Mean of 235 electoral votes |
Mean of 303 electoral votes |
Last Thursday, Sen. Hillary Clinton had a 98% chance of succumbing to Sen. John McCain in a general election. Now, with two new polls in New Jersey, there is almost no substantive change. After 10,000 simulated elections, Clinton wins 191 times (plus she would take the 20 ties), and McCain wins 9,789 times. Clinton has a 1.9% (plus 0.2% for ties) probability of winning and McCain still has a 97.9% probability of winning.
Here is the distribution of electoral votes from the simulations:
- 10,000 simulations: Clinton wins 1.9%, McCain wins 97.9%.
- Average ( SE) EC votes for Clinton: 235.1 ( 17.5)
- Average (SE) EC votes for McCain: 302.9 ( 17.5)
- Median (95% CI) EC votes for Clinton: 235 (205, 267)
- Median (95% CI) EC votes for McCain: 303 (271, 333)
| State |
EC Votes |
# polls |
Total Votes |
% Clinton |
% McCain |
Clinton %wins |
McCain %wins |
| Alabama |
9 |
1 |
521 |
39.3 |
60.7 |
0.0 |
100.0 |
| Alaska |
3 |
0 |
|
|
|
(0) |
(100) |
| Arizona |
10 |
1 |
497 |
36.6 |
63.4 |
0.0 |
100.0 |
| Arkansas |
6 |
1* |
445 |
62.9 |
37.1 |
100.0 |
0.0 |
| California |
55 |
1 |
476 |
62.4 |
37.6 |
100.0 |
0.0 |
| Colorado |
9 |
1 |
420 |
41.7 |
58.3 |
0.1 |
99.9 |
| Connecticut |
7 |
1* |
430 |
54.7 |
45.3 |
96.9 |
3.1 |
| Delaware |
3 |
0 |
|
|
|
(100) |
(0) |
| D.C. |
3 |
0 |
|
|
|
(100) |
(0) |
| Florida |
27 |
3 |
1884 |
47.2 |
52.8 |
1.2 |
98.8 |
| Georgia |
15 |
1 |
517 |
46.0 |
54.0 |
3.8 |
96.2 |
| Hawaii |
4 |
0 |
|
|
|
(100) |
(0) |
| Idaho |
4 |
0 |
|
|
|
(0) |
(100) |
| Illinois |
21 |
1* |
752 |
57.4 |
42.6 |
100.0 |
0.0 |
| Indiana |
11 |
1 |
464 |
45.3 |
54.7 |
2.5 |
97.5 |
| Iowa |
7 |
3 |
1520 |
44.4 |
55.6 |
0.0 |
100.0 |
| Kansas |
6 |
1 |
483 |
37.3 |
62.7 |
0.0 |
100.0 |
| Kentucky |
8 |
1 |
518 |
44.8 |
55.2 |
1.3 |
98.7 |
| Louisiana |
9 |
0 |
|
|
|
(0) |
(100) |
| Maine |
4 |
0 |
|
|
|
(100) |
(0) |
| Maryland |
10 |
1* |
440 |
48.9 |
51.1 |
30.9 |
69.1 |
| Massachusetts |
12 |
1 |
517 |
54.7 |
45.3 |
97.8 |
2.2 |
| Michigan |
17 |
1 |
440 |
50.0 |
50.0 |
50.2 |
49.8 |
| Minnesota |
10 |
2 |
953 |
49.8 |
50.2 |
45.5 |
54.5 |
| Mississippi |
6 |
0 |
|
|
|
(0) |
(100) |
| Missouri |
11 |
2 |
941 |
51.8 |
48.2 |
85.9 |
14.1 |
| Montana |
3 |
0 |
|
|
|
(0) |
(100) |
| Nebraska |
5 |
0 |
|
|
|
(0) |
(100) |
| Nevada |
5 |
1 |
445 |
44.9 |
55.1 |
2.0 |
98.0 |
| New Hampshire |
4 |
1 |
420 |
51.2 |
48.8 |
69.8 |
30.2 |
| New Jersey |
15 |
3 |
2683 |
53.6 |
46.4 |
100.0 |
0.0 |
| New Mexico |
5 |
2 |
921 |
48.1 |
51.9 |
12.8 |
87.3 |
| New York |
31 |
2 |
1059 |
54.8 |
45.2 |
100.0 |
0.0 |
| North Carolina |
15 |
2 |
1296 |
45.0 |
55.0 |
0.0 |
100.0 |
| North Dakota |
3 |
0 |
|
|
|
(0) |
(100) |
| Ohio |
20 |
4 |
3435 |
49.8 |
50.2 |
40.4 |
59.6 |
| Oklahoma |
7 |
1* |
685 |
33.7 |
66.3 |
0.0 |
100.0 |
| Oregon |
7 |
3 |
1248 |
46.4 |
53.6 |
0.6 |
99.4 |
| Pennsylvania |
21 |
5 |
4349 |
51.2 |
48.8 |
95.9 |
4.1 |
| Rhode Island |
4 |
1 |
591 |
60.1 |
39.9 |
100.0 |
0.0 |
| South Carolina |
8 |
0 |
|
|
|
(0) |
(100) |
| South Dakota |
3 |
0 |
|
|
|
(0) |
(100) |
| Tennessee |
11 |
1 |
479 |
45.7 |
54.3 |
3.3 |
96.8 |
| Texas |
34 |
2 |
2802 |
45.3 |
54.7 |
0.0 |
100.0 |
| Utah |
5 |
0 |
|
|
|
(0) |
(100) |
| Vermont |
3 |
1 |
368 |
60.9 |
39.1 |
100.0 |
0.0 |
| Virginia |
13 |
2 |
966 |
46.6 |
53.4 |
1.6 |
98.4 |
| Washington |
11 |
2 |
773 |
49.3 |
50.7 |
32.9 |
67.1 |
| West Virginia |
5 |
1* |
300 |
54.7 |
45.3 |
94.5 |
5.5 |
| Wisconsin |
10 |
3 |
1657 |
45.9 |
54.1 |
0.0 |
100.0 |
| Wyoming |
3 |
0 |
|
|
|
(0) |
(100) |
* denotes that an older poll was used
Details of the methods are given in the FAQ.
The most recent analysis in this and other match-ups can be found from this page.
