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Sunday, March 2, 2008 at 11:12 pm by Darryl

Poll Analysis: Obama v. McCain

Obama McCain
95.6% probability of winning 3.5% probability of winning
Mean of 298 electoral votes Mean of 240 electoral votes

Electoral College Map

Washington Oregon Idaho Montana Wyoming North Dakota South Dakota Minnesota Wisconsin Iowa Illinios Indiana Colorado Utah New Mexico Texas Nebraska Oklahoma Kansas Nevada California Arizona Missouri Arkansas Louisiana Mississippi Alabama Tennessee Georgia Kentucky Ohio Michigan Pennsylvania West Virginia Virginia Hawaii Alaska North Carolina South Carolina Florida New York Vermont New Hampshire Maine Massachusetts Rhode Island Connecticut New Jersey Delaware Maryland District of Columbia

This match-up last Thursday showed Sen. Barack Obama with a 94.1% probability of beating Sen. John McCain in a general election. Now, after two new polls in New Jersey, have been added, Obama’s chances increase slightly.

After 10000 simulated elections, Obama wins 9,557 times (plus the 89 times for ties) and McCain wins 354 times. In a hypothetical general election held today, Obama has a 95.6% (plus 0.9% extra for ties) probability of winning and McCain has a 3.5% probability of winning.

Here is the distribution of electoral votes from the simulations:

  • 10,000 simulations: Obama wins 95.6%, McCain wins 3.5%.
  • Average ( SE) EC votes for Obama: 298.0 ( 16.5)
  • Average (SE) EC votes for McCain: 240.0 ( 16.5)
  • Median (95% CI) EC votes for Obama: 298 (266, 322)
  • Median (95% CI) EC votes for McCain: 240 (216, 272)
State EC Votes # polls Total Votes % Obama % McCain Obama %wins McCain %wins
Alabama 9 1 521 39.3 60.7 0.0 100.0
Alaska 3 0 (0) (100)
Arizona 10 1 480 43.8 56.3 0.8 99.2
Arkansas 6 0 (0) (100)
California 55 1 486 64.2 35.8 100.0 0.0
Colorado 9 1 425 54.1 45.9 95.8 4.2
Connecticut 7 1* 1198 54.8 45.2 100.0 0.0
Delaware 3 0 (100) (0)
D.C. 3 0 (100) (0)
Florida 27 3 1783 45.4 54.6 0.0 100.0
Georgia 15 1 523 45.5 54.5 2.4 97.6
Hawaii 4 0 (100) (0)
Idaho 4 0 (0) (100)
Illinois 21 0 (100) (0)
Indiana 11 1 450 44.4 55.6 1.5 98.5
Iowa 7 3 1519 56.0 44.0 100.0 0.0
Kansas 6 1 483 46.8 53.2 7.3 92.7
Kentucky 8 1 502 40.8 59.2 0.0 100.0
Louisiana 9 0 (0) (100)
Maine 4 0 (100) (0)
Maryland 10 1* 450 53.3 46.7 92.4 7.6
Massachusetts 12 1 511 51.1 48.9 69.9 30.1
Michigan 17 1 430 54.7 45.3 96.9 3.1
Minnesota 10 2 969 58.1 41.9 100.0 0.0
Mississippi 6 0 (0) (100)
Missouri 11 2 911 51.3 48.7 78.8 21.2
Montana 3 0 (0) (100)
Nebraska 5 0 (0) (100)
Nevada 5 1 440 56.8 43.2 99.5 0.5
New Hampshire 4 1 425 57.6 42.4 99.8 0.2
New Jersey 15 3 2616 53.0 47.0 100.0 0.0
New Mexico 5 2 920 54.1 45.9 99.7 0.3
New York 31 2 1034 57.4 42.6 100.0 0.0
North Carolina 15 2 1266 45.5 54.5 0.0 100.0
North Dakota 3 0 (0) (100)
Ohio 20 4 3261 49.8 50.2 42.0 58.0
Oklahoma 7 0 (0) (100)
Oregon 7 3 1284 53.2 46.8 98.5 1.5
Pennsylvania 21 5 4229 51.7 48.3 100.0 0.0
Rhode Island 4 1 532 58.3 41.7 100.0 0.0
South Carolina 8 0 (0) (100)
South Dakota 3 0 (0) (100)
Tennessee 11 1 496 41.9 58.1 0.1 99.9
Texas 34 2 2755 45.7 54.3 0.0 100.0
Utah 5 0 (0) (100)
Vermont 3 1 372 61.3 38.7 100.0 0.0
Virginia 13 2 987 50.4 49.6 60.3 39.7
Washington 11 2 783 58.6 41.4 100.0 0.0
West Virginia 5 0 (0) (100)
Wisconsin 10 3 1652 52.0 48.0 95.2 4.8
Wyoming 3 0 (0) (100)

* denotes that an older poll was used

Details of the methods are given in the FAQ.

The most recent analysis in this and other match-ups can be found from this page.

Posted in Poll analysis, politics

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4 Responses to “Poll Analysis: Obama v. McCain”

  1. jn Says:

    Monday, March 3rd, 2008 at 5:59 am

    The only way Obama will beat McCain is if he is the VP running mate for Hillary Clinton. Together they win, divided they fall. Hillary is better prepared to be president than Obama is.

    CLINTON/OBAMA 08

  2. Roy Smith Says:

    Tuesday, March 4th, 2008 at 11:14 am

    The only way the Democrats will beat McCain is if they can avoid nominating a candidate which is guaranteed to rally the Republicans and a lot of independents around McCain. Clinton might be better prepared to be President than Obama is, but that fact is largely irrelevant considering she is basically unelectable.

  3. Robert E. Buxbaum Says:

    Thursday, March 6th, 2008 at 7:26 pm

    I think you may have missread the March 2 Rasmussen poll numbers for New Jersey. While the poll does show Clinton beating McCain handily, they also show McCain beating Obama by a slight margin: McCain vs. Obama: McCain 45, Obama 43, Und 12. Also, I’d think it is time to add the recent polls for Washington (March 5) and for Pennsylvania (March 6). These polls give a sense that Clinton is not the weakling you seem to think she is, and that McCain will not be as easy for Obama to beat as the current chart shows.
    With best regards,
    Robert E.

  4. Darryl Says:

    Friday, March 7th, 2008 at 10:03 am

    Robert,

    Thanks for the comment.

    “I think you may have missread the March 2 Rasmussen poll numbers for New Jersey. While the poll does show Clinton beating McCain handily, they also show McCain beating Obama by a slight margin: McCain vs. Obama: McCain 45, Obama 43″

    I have that poll entered correctly. The reason NJ is shown going for Obama is because there are THREE current polls from NJ—that means that there are three polls taken within the last month for the state:

    A Rasmussen poll of 500 people taken on the 27 Feb giving McCain 45% and Obama 43%.

    A Fairleigh Dickenson poll of 795 people taken on 18-24 Feb giving McCain 38 and Obama 43

    A Quinnipiac poll of 1,803 people taken from 13-18 Feb giving McCain 39% and Obama 46%.

    When these polls are pooled, Obama wins the state all 10,000 simulated elections.

    (Note that yesterday a new SurveyUSA poll showed them tied at 43%. That poll is included in the most recent analysis.)

    “Also, I’d think it is time to add the recent polls for Washington (March 5) and for Pennsylvania (March 6).”

    The Washington poll is included in the current analysis. I’m not sure what Pennsylvania poll you are referring to. In this post’s analysis there are 5 PA polls.

    Quinnipiac (26-28 Feb), Keystone Poll (13-18 Feb), Rasmussen (14 Feb), Muhlenberg/Morning Call (9-17 Feb), and Quinnipiac (6-12 Feb)

    I added the new SurveyUSA poll PA released yesterday (with 49 other states) in the most recent analysis.

    “These polls give a sense that Clinton is not the weakling you seem to think she is…”

    She has improved in the most recent analysis, but she is still not in the lead.

    “…and that McCain will not be as easy for Obama to beat as the current chart shows.”

    In fact, the current analysis give Obama 100% chance of beating McCain (if the election were held now).

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