| Clinton |
McCain |
| 4.6% probability of winning |
95.3% probability of winning |
| Mean of 239 electoral votes |
Mean of 299 electoral votes |
There were six interesting new polls added today that weigh in on the race between Sen. Hillary Clinton and Sen. John McCain. Yesterday Clinton was given an 8.5% chance of defeating McCain in a general election held yesterday.
Now, with these new polls included in the 10,000 simulated elections, Clinton wins only 456 times (plus 19 times for ties) and McCain wins 9,525 times. Clinton chances of defeating McCain (in a hypothetical election held now) have dropped to a probability of 4.6%. McCain’s chances are now a probability of 95.3%.
The distribution of electoral votes from the simulations follows:
- 10,000 simulations: Clinton wins 4.6%, McCain wins 95.3%.
- Average ( SE) EC votes for Clinton: 239.3 ( 18.5)
- Average (SE) EC votes for McCain: 298.7 ( 18.5)
- Median (95% CI) EC votes for Clinton: 239 (206, 277)
- Median (95% CI) EC votes for McCain: 299 (261, 332)
| State |
EC Votes |
# polls |
Total Votes |
% Clinton |
% McCain |
Clinton %wins |
McCain %wins |
| Alabama |
9 |
1 |
521 |
39.3 |
60.7 |
0.0 |
100.0 |
| Alaska |
3 |
0 |
|
|
|
(0) |
(100) |
| Arizona |
10 |
1 |
497 |
36.6 |
63.4 |
0.0 |
100.0 |
| Arkansas |
6 |
1* |
445 |
62.9 |
37.1 |
100.0 |
0.0 |
| California |
55 |
1 |
476 |
62.4 |
37.6 |
100.0 |
0.0 |
| Colorado |
9 |
1 |
420 |
41.7 |
58.3 |
0.1 |
99.9 |
| Connecticut |
7 |
1* |
430 |
54.7 |
45.3 |
97.2 |
2.9 |
| Delaware |
3 |
0 |
|
|
|
(100) |
(0) |
| D.C. |
3 |
0 |
|
|
|
(100) |
(0) |
| Florida |
27 |
2 |
1328 |
48.1 |
51.9 |
8.2 |
91.8 |
| Georgia |
15 |
1 |
517 |
46.0 |
54.0 |
3.5 |
96.5 |
| Hawaii |
4 |
0 |
|
|
|
(100) |
(0) |
| Idaho |
4 |
0 |
|
|
|
(0) |
(100) |
| Illinois |
21 |
1* |
752 |
57.4 |
42.6 |
100.0 |
0.0 |
| Indiana |
11 |
1 |
464 |
45.3 |
54.7 |
2.4 |
97.6 |
| Iowa |
7 |
3 |
1520 |
44.4 |
55.6 |
0.0 |
100.0 |
| Kansas |
6 |
1 |
483 |
37.3 |
62.7 |
0.0 |
100.0 |
| Kentucky |
8 |
1 |
518 |
44.8 |
55.2 |
1.3 |
98.7 |
| Louisiana |
9 |
0 |
|
|
|
(0) |
(100) |
| Maine |
4 |
0 |
|
|
|
(100) |
(0) |
| Maryland |
10 |
1* |
440 |
48.9 |
51.1 |
30.2 |
69.8 |
| Massachusetts |
12 |
1 |
517 |
54.7 |
45.3 |
98.2 |
1.8 |
| Michigan |
17 |
1 |
440 |
50.0 |
50.0 |
49.7 |
50.3 |
| Minnesota |
10 |
2 |
953 |
49.8 |
50.2 |
45.8 |
54.2 |
| Mississippi |
6 |
0 |
|
|
|
(0) |
(100) |
| Missouri |
11 |
2 |
941 |
51.8 |
48.2 |
86.2 |
13.8 |
| Montana |
3 |
0 |
|
|
|
(0) |
(100) |
| Nebraska |
5 |
0 |
|
|
|
(0) |
(100) |
| Nevada |
5 |
1 |
445 |
44.9 |
55.1 |
1.9 |
98.1 |
| New Hampshire |
4 |
1 |
420 |
51.2 |
48.8 |
70.4 |
29.6 |
| New Jersey |
15 |
1 |
1586 |
53.4 |
46.6 |
99.2 |
0.8 |
| New Mexico |
5 |
2 |
921 |
48.1 |
51.9 |
12.7 |
87.4 |
| New York |
31 |
2 |
1059 |
54.8 |
45.2 |
100.0 |
0.0 |
| North Carolina |
15 |
2 |
1296 |
45.0 |
55.0 |
0.0 |
100.0 |
| North Dakota |
3 |
0 |
|
|
|
(0) |
(100) |
| Ohio |
20 |
4 |
3435 |
49.8 |
50.2 |
40.9 |
59.1 |
| Oklahoma |
7 |
1* |
685 |
33.7 |
66.3 |
0.0 |
100.0 |
| Oregon |
7 |
3 |
1248 |
46.4 |
53.6 |
1.0 |
99.0 |
| Pennsylvania |
21 |
4 |
3849 |
51.5 |
48.5 |
98.6 |
1.4 |
| Rhode Island |
4 |
1 |
591 |
60.1 |
39.9 |
100.0 |
0.0 |
| South Carolina |
8 |
0 |
|
|
|
(0) |
(100) |
| South Dakota |
3 |
0 |
|
|
|
(0) |
(100) |
| Tennessee |
11 |
1* |
516 |
48.3 |
51.7 |
19.4 |
80.7 |
| Texas |
34 |
2 |
2802 |
45.3 |
54.7 |
0.0 |
100.0 |
| Utah |
5 |
0 |
|
|
|
(0) |
(100) |
| Vermont |
3 |
1 |
368 |
60.9 |
39.1 |
100.0 |
0.0 |
| Virginia |
13 |
2 |
966 |
46.6 |
53.4 |
1.7 |
98.3 |
| Washington |
11 |
2 |
773 |
49.3 |
50.7 |
32.9 |
67.1 |
| West Virginia |
5 |
1* |
300 |
54.7 |
45.3 |
94.7 |
5.3 |
| Wisconsin |
10 |
3 |
1657 |
45.9 |
54.1 |
0.0 |
100.0 |
| Wyoming |
3 |
0 |
|
|
|
(0) |
(100) |
* denotes that an older poll was used
Details of the methods are given here.
The most recent analysis in this and other match-ups can be found from this page.
