| Obama |
McCain |
| 94.8% probability of winning |
4.4% probability of winning |
| Mean of 298 electoral votes |
Mean of 240 electoral votes |
With the addition of six new polls today, Sen. Barack Obama slips a bit in his competition against Sen. John McCain.
Yesterday’s analysis gave him a 97.4% probability of defeating McCain. Today, after 10,000 simulated elections, Obama wins 9,483 times, plus 74 times for ties. McCain wins 442 times. Thus, if a general election were held today, we would expect Obama to have a 94.8% probability (plus an additional 0.7% probability for ties) of defeating McCain.
Here is the distribution of electoral votes from the simulations:
- 10000 simulations: Obama wins 94.8%, McCain wins 4.4%.
- Average ( SE) EC votes for Obama: 298.0 ( 16.7)
- Average (SE) EC votes for McCain: 240.0 ( 16.7)
- Median (95% CI) EC votes for Obama: 301 (266, 322)
- Median (95% CI) EC votes for McCain: 237 (216, 272)
| State |
EC Votes |
# polls |
Total Votes |
% Obama |
% McCain |
Obama %wins |
McCain %wins |
| Alabama |
9 |
1 |
521 |
39.3 |
60.7 |
0.0 |
100.0 |
| Alaska |
3 |
0 |
|
|
|
(0) |
(100) |
| Arizona |
10 |
1 |
480 |
43.8 |
56.3 |
0.7 |
99.3 |
| Arkansas |
6 |
0 |
|
|
|
(0) |
(100) |
| California |
55 |
1 |
486 |
64.2 |
35.8 |
100.0 |
0.0 |
| Colorado |
9 |
1 |
425 |
54.1 |
45.9 |
95.6 |
4.4 |
| Connecticut |
7 |
1* |
1198 |
54.8 |
45.2 |
100.0 |
0.0 |
| Delaware |
3 |
0 |
|
|
|
(100) |
(0) |
| D.C. |
3 |
0 |
|
|
|
(100) |
(0) |
| Florida |
27 |
2 |
1258 |
46.0 |
54.0 |
0.4 |
99.6 |
| Georgia |
15 |
1 |
523 |
45.5 |
54.5 |
2.3 |
97.7 |
| Hawaii |
4 |
0 |
|
|
|
(100) |
(0) |
| Idaho |
4 |
0 |
|
|
|
(0) |
(100) |
| Illinois |
21 |
0 |
|
|
|
(100) |
(0) |
| Indiana |
11 |
1 |
450 |
44.4 |
55.6 |
0.9 |
99.1 |
| Iowa |
7 |
3 |
1519 |
56.0 |
44.0 |
100.0 |
0.0 |
| Kansas |
6 |
1 |
483 |
46.8 |
53.2 |
6.7 |
93.3 |
| Kentucky |
8 |
1 |
502 |
40.8 |
59.2 |
0.0 |
100.0 |
| Louisiana |
9 |
0 |
|
|
|
(0) |
(100) |
| Maine |
4 |
0 |
|
|
|
(100) |
(0) |
| Maryland |
10 |
1* |
450 |
53.3 |
46.7 |
92.7 |
7.3 |
| Massachusetts |
12 |
1 |
511 |
51.1 |
48.9 |
70.9 |
29.1 |
| Michigan |
17 |
1 |
430 |
54.7 |
45.3 |
97.0 |
3.0 |
| Minnesota |
10 |
2 |
969 |
58.1 |
41.9 |
100.0 |
0.0 |
| Mississippi |
6 |
0 |
|
|
|
(0) |
(100) |
| Missouri |
11 |
2 |
911 |
51.3 |
48.7 |
78.9 |
21.1 |
| Montana |
3 |
0 |
|
|
|
(0) |
(100) |
| Nebraska |
5 |
0 |
|
|
|
(0) |
(100) |
| Nevada |
5 |
1 |
440 |
56.8 |
43.2 |
99.6 |
0.4 |
| New Hampshire |
4 |
1 |
425 |
57.6 |
42.4 |
99.8 |
0.2 |
| New Jersey |
15 |
1 |
1532 |
54.1 |
45.9 |
100.0 |
0.0 |
| New Mexico |
5 |
2 |
920 |
54.1 |
45.9 |
99.6 |
0.4 |
| New York |
31 |
2 |
1034 |
57.4 |
42.6 |
100.0 |
0.0 |
| North Carolina |
15 |
2 |
1266 |
45.5 |
54.5 |
0.0 |
100.0 |
| North Dakota |
3 |
0 |
|
|
|
(0) |
(100) |
| Ohio |
20 |
4 |
3261 |
49.8 |
50.2 |
41.4 |
58.6 |
| Oklahoma |
7 |
0 |
|
|
|
(0) |
(100) |
| Oregon |
7 |
3 |
1284 |
53.2 |
46.8 |
98.7 |
1.3 |
| Pennsylvania |
21 |
4 |
3753 |
52.2 |
47.8 |
100.0 |
0.0 |
| Rhode Island |
4 |
1 |
532 |
58.3 |
41.7 |
100.0 |
0.0 |
| South Carolina |
8 |
0 |
|
|
|
(0) |
(100) |
| South Dakota |
3 |
0 |
|
|
|
(0) |
(100) |
| Tennessee |
11 |
1* |
469 |
44.3 |
55.7 |
1.0 |
99.0 |
| Texas |
34 |
2 |
2755 |
45.7 |
54.3 |
0.0 |
100.0 |
| Utah |
5 |
0 |
|
|
|
(0) |
(100) |
| Vermont |
3 |
1 |
372 |
61.3 |
38.7 |
100.0 |
0.0 |
| Virginia |
13 |
2 |
987 |
50.4 |
49.6 |
59.2 |
40.8 |
| Washington |
11 |
2 |
783 |
58.6 |
41.4 |
100.0 |
0.0 |
| West Virginia |
5 |
0 |
|
|
|
(0) |
(100) |
| Wisconsin |
10 |
3 |
1652 |
52.0 |
48.0 |
95.0 |
5.0 |
| Wyoming |
3 |
0 |
|
|
|
(0) |
(100) |
* denotes that an older poll was used
Details of the methods are given here.
The most recent analysis in this and other match-ups can be found from this page.
