| Clinton |
McCain |
| Wins 91.7% |
Wins 7.8% |
| Mean of 293 electoral votes |
Mean of 245 electoral votes |
There were four new polls released today that weigh in on this match-up. An analysis of 10,000 simulated elections four days ago showed McCain with only a 4% chance of winning. With the new polls included in the mix, the simulations give McCain 779 wins, and Clinton 9,167 wins (she also gets the 54 ties). In other words, McCain’s chances (if the election were held today) are now 7.8%.
- 10000 simulations: Clinton wins 91.7%, McCain wins 7.8%.
- Average ( SE) EC votes for Clinton: 293.3 ( 16.9)
- Average (SE) EC votes for McCain: 244.7 ( 16.9)
- Median (95% CI) EC votes for Clinton: 294 (259, 325)
- Median (95% CI) EC votes for McCain: 244 (213, 279)
| State |
EC Votes |
# polls |
Total Votes |
% Clinton |
% McCain |
Clinton %wins |
McCain %wins |
| Alabama |
9 |
1 |
506 |
46.2 |
53.8 |
4.6 |
95.4 |
| Alaska |
3 |
0 |
|
|
|
(0) |
(100) |
| Arizona |
10 |
1 |
455 |
37.4 |
62.6 |
0.0 |
100.0 |
| Arkansas |
6 |
1* |
445 |
62.9 |
37.1 |
100.0 |
0.0 |
| California |
55 |
2 |
969 |
59.6 |
40.4 |
100.0 |
0.0 |
| Colorado |
9 |
1 |
420 |
47.6 |
52.4 |
15.6 |
84.4 |
| Connecticut |
7 |
1* |
430 |
54.7 |
45.3 |
96.9 |
3.1 |
| Delaware |
3 |
0 |
|
|
|
(100) |
(0) |
| D.C. |
3 |
0 |
|
|
|
(100) |
(0) |
| Florida |
27 |
1 |
978 |
54.0 |
46.0 |
99.7 |
0.3 |
| Georgia |
15 |
0 |
|
|
|
(0) |
(100) |
| Hawaii |
4 |
0 |
|
|
|
(100) |
(0) |
| Idaho |
4 |
0 |
|
|
|
(0) |
(100) |
| Illinois |
21 |
0 |
|
|
|
(100) |
(0) |
| Indiana |
11 |
0 |
|
|
|
(0) |
(100) |
| Iowa |
7 |
1 |
489 |
49.5 |
50.5 |
39.7 |
60.3 |
| Kansas |
6 |
2 |
927 |
37.2 |
62.8 |
0.0 |
100.0 |
| Kentucky |
8 |
1 |
502 |
46.8 |
53.2 |
7.4 |
92.6 |
| Louisiana |
9 |
0 |
|
|
|
(0) |
(100) |
| Maine |
4 |
0 |
|
|
|
(100) |
(0) |
| Maryland |
10 |
1* |
435 |
54.0 |
46.0 |
95.0 |
5.0 |
| Massachusetts |
12 |
1 |
504 |
53.8 |
46.2 |
95.3 |
4.7 |
| Michigan |
17 |
1* |
425 |
54.1 |
45.9 |
95.3 |
4.7 |
| Minnesota |
10 |
1 |
522 |
54.2 |
45.8 |
96.9 |
3.1 |
| Mississippi |
6 |
0 |
|
|
|
(0) |
(100) |
| Missouri |
11 |
1 |
524 |
52.3 |
47.7 |
86.4 |
13.6 |
| Montana |
3 |
0 |
|
|
|
(0) |
(100) |
| Nebraska |
5 |
0 |
|
|
|
(0) |
(100) |
| Nevada |
5 |
1* |
498 |
47.0 |
53.0 |
8.7 |
91.3 |
| New Hampshire |
4 |
1* |
430 |
50.0 |
50.0 |
49.8 |
50.2 |
| New Jersey |
15 |
1* |
440 |
59.1 |
40.9 |
100.0 |
0.0 |
| New Mexico |
5 |
1 |
486 |
48.4 |
51.6 |
22.1 |
77.9 |
| New York |
31 |
1 |
473 |
60.7 |
39.3 |
100.0 |
0.0 |
| North Carolina |
15 |
1 |
425 |
47.1 |
52.9 |
10.4 |
89.6 |
| North Dakota |
3 |
0 |
|
|
|
(0) |
(100) |
| Ohio |
20 |
3 |
2103 |
49.3 |
50.7 |
20.8 |
79.2 |
| Oklahoma |
7 |
1 |
685 |
33.7 |
66.3 |
0.0 |
100.0 |
| Oregon |
7 |
1* |
486 |
48.4 |
51.6 |
21.4 |
78.6 |
| Pennsylvania |
21 |
1 |
940 |
50.0 |
50.0 |
50.1 |
49.9 |
| Rhode Island |
4 |
1* |
462 |
68.0 |
32.0 |
100.0 |
0.0 |
| South Carolina |
8 |
0 |
|
|
|
(0) |
(100) |
| South Dakota |
3 |
0 |
|
|
|
(0) |
(100) |
| Tennessee |
11 |
1* |
516 |
48.3 |
51.7 |
19.8 |
80.2 |
| Texas |
34 |
1* |
445 |
43.8 |
56.2 |
0.8 |
99.2 |
| Utah |
5 |
0 |
|
|
|
(0) |
(100) |
| Vermont |
3 |
0 |
|
|
|
(100) |
(0) |
| Virginia |
13 |
1 |
513 |
51.1 |
48.9 |
69.7 |
30.3 |
| Washington |
11 |
1 |
472 |
61.9 |
38.1 |
100.0 |
0.0 |
| West Virginia |
5 |
1* |
300 |
54.7 |
45.3 |
94.6 |
5.4 |
| Wisconsin |
10 |
1 |
493 |
46.5 |
53.5 |
5.7 |
94.3 |
| Wyoming |
3 |
0 |
|
|
|
(0) |
(100) |
* denotes that an older poll was used
Details of the methods are given here.
The most recent analysis in this and other match-ups can be from from this page.
