Poll Analysis: Clinton v. McCain

Clinton McCain
Wins 91.7% Wins 7.8%
Mean of 293 electoral votes Mean of 245 electoral votes

Electoral College Map

Washington Oregon Idaho Montana Wyoming North Dakota South Dakota Minnesota Wisconsin Iowa Illinios Indiana Colorado Utah New Mexico Texas Nebraska Oklahoma Kansas Nevada California Arizona Missouri Arkansas Louisiana Mississippi Alabama Tennessee Georgia Kentucky Ohio Michigan Pennsylvania West Virginia Virginia Hawaii Alaska North Carolina South Carolina Florida New York Vermont New Hampshire Maine Massachusetts Rhode Island Connecticut New Jersey Delaware Maryland District of Columbia

There were four new polls released today that weigh in on this match-up. An analysis of 10,000 simulated elections four days ago showed McCain with only a 4% chance of winning. With the new polls included in the mix, the simulations give McCain 779 wins, and Clinton 9,167 wins (she also gets the 54 ties). In other words, McCain’s chances (if the election were held today) are now 7.8%.

  • 10000 simulations: Clinton wins 91.7%, McCain wins 7.8%.
  • Average ( SE) EC votes for Clinton: 293.3 ( 16.9)
  • Average (SE) EC votes for McCain: 244.7 ( 16.9)
  • Median (95% CI) EC votes for Clinton: 294 (259, 325)
  • Median (95% CI) EC votes for McCain: 244 (213, 279)
State EC Votes # polls Total Votes % Clinton % McCain Clinton %wins McCain %wins
Alabama 9 1 506 46.2 53.8 4.6 95.4
Alaska 3 0 (0) (100)
Arizona 10 1 455 37.4 62.6 0.0 100.0
Arkansas 6 1* 445 62.9 37.1 100.0 0.0
California 55 2 969 59.6 40.4 100.0 0.0
Colorado 9 1 420 47.6 52.4 15.6 84.4
Connecticut 7 1* 430 54.7 45.3 96.9 3.1
Delaware 3 0 (100) (0)
D.C. 3 0 (100) (0)
Florida 27 1 978 54.0 46.0 99.7 0.3
Georgia 15 0 (0) (100)
Hawaii 4 0 (100) (0)
Idaho 4 0 (0) (100)
Illinois 21 0 (100) (0)
Indiana 11 0 (0) (100)
Iowa 7 1 489 49.5 50.5 39.7 60.3
Kansas 6 2 927 37.2 62.8 0.0 100.0
Kentucky 8 1 502 46.8 53.2 7.4 92.6
Louisiana 9 0 (0) (100)
Maine 4 0 (100) (0)
Maryland 10 1* 435 54.0 46.0 95.0 5.0
Massachusetts 12 1 504 53.8 46.2 95.3 4.7
Michigan 17 1* 425 54.1 45.9 95.3 4.7
Minnesota 10 1 522 54.2 45.8 96.9 3.1
Mississippi 6 0 (0) (100)
Missouri 11 1 524 52.3 47.7 86.4 13.6
Montana 3 0 (0) (100)
Nebraska 5 0 (0) (100)
Nevada 5 1* 498 47.0 53.0 8.7 91.3
New Hampshire 4 1* 430 50.0 50.0 49.8 50.2
New Jersey 15 1* 440 59.1 40.9 100.0 0.0
New Mexico 5 1 486 48.4 51.6 22.1 77.9
New York 31 1 473 60.7 39.3 100.0 0.0
North Carolina 15 1 425 47.1 52.9 10.4 89.6
North Dakota 3 0 (0) (100)
Ohio 20 3 2103 49.3 50.7 20.8 79.2
Oklahoma 7 1 685 33.7 66.3 0.0 100.0
Oregon 7 1* 486 48.4 51.6 21.4 78.6
Pennsylvania 21 1 940 50.0 50.0 50.1 49.9
Rhode Island 4 1* 462 68.0 32.0 100.0 0.0
South Carolina 8 0 (0) (100)
South Dakota 3 0 (0) (100)
Tennessee 11 1* 516 48.3 51.7 19.8 80.2
Texas 34 1* 445 43.8 56.2 0.8 99.2
Utah 5 0 (0) (100)
Vermont 3 0 (100) (0)
Virginia 13 1 513 51.1 48.9 69.7 30.3
Washington 11 1 472 61.9 38.1 100.0 0.0
West Virginia 5 1* 300 54.7 45.3 94.6 5.4
Wisconsin 10 1 493 46.5 53.5 5.7 94.3
Wyoming 3 0 (0) (100)

* denotes that an older poll was used

Details of the methods are given here.

The most recent analysis in this and other match-ups can be from from this page.

  • Both comments and trackbacks are currently closed.
  • Trackback URI: http://hominidviews.com/wp-trackback.php?p=1237
  • Comments RSS 2.0

Comments are closed.

AWSOM Powered