| Clinton |
Huckabee |
| Wins 100.0% |
Wins 0.0% |
| Mean of 336 electoral votes |
Mean of 202 electoral votes |
It has been about a week since I’ve last analyzed this race, and there have been numerous new polls (including today’s batch).
A week ago Huckabee lost all 10,000 simulated elections as he does today. He only earned an average of 192 electoral votes in the simulations. Now he has crept up to an average of 202—that is, if the election were held today he would lose slightly less badly. There isn’t much else to say about this match-up.
After 10000 simulated elections, Clinton won 10000, Huckabee won 0, and there were 0 ties. Clinton wins 100.0% and Huckabee wins 0.0%.
- 10000 simulations: Clinton wins 100.0%, Huckabee wins 0.0%.
- Average ( SE) EC votes for Clinton: 336.4 ( 12.8)
- Average (SE) EC votes for Huckabee: 201.6 ( 12.8)
- Median (95% CI) EC votes for Clinton: 337 (307, 360)
- Median (95% CI) EC votes for Huckabee: 201 (178, 231)
| State |
EC Votes |
# polls |
Total Votes |
% Clinton |
% Huckabee |
Clinton %wins |
Huckabee %wins |
| Alabama |
9 |
1 |
506 |
47.2 |
52.8 |
9.7 |
90.3 |
| Alaska |
3 |
0 |
|
|
|
(0) |
(100) |
| Arizona |
10 |
0 |
|
|
|
(0) |
(100) |
| Arkansas |
6 |
2 |
979 |
48.8 |
51.2 |
21.9 |
78.1 |
| California |
55 |
2 |
937 |
62.2 |
37.8 |
100.0 |
0.0 |
| Colorado |
9 |
1 |
415 |
49.4 |
50.6 |
39.3 |
60.7 |
| Connecticut |
7 |
0 |
|
|
|
(100) |
(0) |
| Delaware |
3 |
0 |
|
|
|
(100) |
(0) |
| D.C. |
3 |
0 |
|
|
|
(100) |
(0) |
| Florida |
27 |
1 |
955 |
58.8 |
41.2 |
100.0 |
0.0 |
| Georgia |
15 |
0 |
|
|
|
(0) |
(100) |
| Hawaii |
4 |
0 |
|
|
|
(100) |
(0) |
| Idaho |
4 |
0 |
|
|
|
(0) |
(100) |
| Illinois |
21 |
1 |
430 |
52.3 |
47.7 |
84.5 |
15.5 |
| Indiana |
11 |
0 |
|
|
|
(0) |
(100) |
| Iowa |
7 |
1 |
488 |
50.8 |
49.2 |
65.8 |
34.2 |
| Kansas |
6 |
2 |
911 |
43.5 |
56.5 |
0.0 |
100.0 |
| Kentucky |
8 |
1 |
497 |
50.5 |
49.5 |
59.7 |
40.3 |
| Louisiana |
9 |
0 |
|
|
|
(0) |
(100) |
| Maine |
4 |
0 |
|
|
|
(100) |
(0) |
| Maryland |
10 |
1* |
415 |
62.7 |
37.3 |
100.0 |
0.0 |
| Massachusetts |
12 |
2 |
919 |
65.4 |
34.6 |
100.0 |
0.0 |
| Michigan |
17 |
1 |
405 |
55.6 |
44.4 |
98.5 |
1.5 |
| Minnesota |
10 |
1 |
523 |
56.6 |
43.4 |
99.7 |
0.3 |
| Mississippi |
6 |
0 |
|
|
|
(0) |
(100) |
| Missouri |
11 |
2 |
963 |
50.1 |
49.9 |
51.2 |
48.8 |
| Montana |
3 |
0 |
|
|
|
(0) |
(100) |
| Nebraska |
5 |
0 |
|
|
|
(0) |
(100) |
| Nevada |
5 |
0 |
|
|
|
(0) |
(100) |
| New Hampshire |
4 |
0 |
|
|
|
(100) |
(0) |
| New Jersey |
15 |
1 |
425 |
60.0 |
40.0 |
100.0 |
0.0 |
| New Mexico |
5 |
1 |
491 |
52.1 |
47.9 |
84.5 |
15.6 |
| New York |
31 |
1 |
453 |
63.4 |
36.6 |
100.0 |
0.0 |
| North Carolina |
15 |
2 |
836 |
46.3 |
53.7 |
1.9 |
98.0 |
| North Dakota |
3 |
0 |
|
|
|
(0) |
(100) |
| Ohio |
20 |
4 |
2476 |
52.9 |
47.1 |
99.9 |
0.1 |
| Oklahoma |
7 |
1 |
678 |
38.5 |
61.5 |
0.0 |
100.0 |
| Oregon |
7 |
1* |
471 |
55.6 |
44.4 |
98.8 |
1.2 |
| Pennsylvania |
21 |
1 |
928 |
56.5 |
43.5 |
100.0 |
0.0 |
| Rhode Island |
4 |
0 |
|
|
|
(100) |
(0) |
| South Carolina |
8 |
1 |
1026 |
49.5 |
50.5 |
35.7 |
64.3 |
| South Dakota |
3 |
0 |
|
|
|
(0) |
(100) |
| Tennessee |
11 |
0 |
|
|
|
(0) |
(100) |
| Texas |
34 |
0 |
|
|
|
(0) |
(100) |
| Utah |
5 |
1 |
430 |
30.2 |
69.8 |
0.0 |
100.0 |
| Vermont |
3 |
0 |
|
|
|
(100) |
(0) |
| Virginia |
13 |
1 |
513 |
57.5 |
42.5 |
99.8 |
0.2 |
| Washington |
11 |
1 |
477 |
59.1 |
40.9 |
100.0 |
0.0 |
| West Virginia |
5 |
0 |
|
|
|
(0) |
(100) |
| Wisconsin |
10 |
2 |
904 |
54.2 |
45.8 |
99.6 |
0.4 |
| Wyoming |
3 |
0 |
|
|
|
(0) |
(100) |
* denotes that an older poll was used
Details of the methods are given here.
The most recent analysis in this and other match-ups can be from from this page.
