Wednesday, December 19, 2007 at 10:01 pm by Darryl
|Wins 21.0%||Wins 77.8%|
|Mean of 252 electoral votes||Mean of 286 electoral votes|
It has been nearly a month since I first posted on this match-up for the general election. A month ago, Giuliani had a 99.3% chance of beating Obama.
I also suggested that Obama supporters have a little patience. There was a dearth of current state head-to-head match-ups for this race, except for a large SurveyUSA series from early 2007. Surely things have changed since then. Judging by how Giuliani has gone from strongly leading Clinton through most of the first half of this year to Clinton currently leading Giuliani, it is fair to surmise that Giuliani has lost much of his luster since early in the year.
Indeed, it seems to be true for the Obama—Giuliani race as well. After 10,000 simulated elections, Obama wins 2,097 times, Giuliani wins 7,777 times, and there are 126 ties. Obama seems to have a 21.0% chance of winning (plus a bonus 0.1% chance if the Electoral College election ended in a tie). Giuliani is down from a 99.3% chance of winning a month ago to a 77.8% chance if the election were held today.
This is a little worse that Obama did six days age where he won 32%. But with something over ten more months to go before the General, the larger momentum probably favors Obama.
Here is the distribution of electoral votes from the simulations:
- 10000 simulations: Obama wins 21.0%, Giuliani wins 77.8%.
- Average ( SE) EC votes for Obama: 252.3 ( 20.4)
- Average (SE) EC votes for Giuliani: 285.7 ( 20.4)
- Median (95% CI) EC votes for Obama: 253 (213, 290)
- Median (95% CI) EC votes for Giuliani: 285 (248, 325)
* denotes that an older poll was used
Details of the methods are given here.
The most recent analysis in this and other match-ups can be found from this page.