Poll Analysis: Obama v. Giuliani Update

Obama Giuliani
Wins 21.0% Wins 77.8%
Mean of 252 electoral votes Mean of 286 electoral votes

Electoral College Map

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It has been nearly a month since I first posted on this match-up for the general election. A month ago, Giuliani had a 99.3% chance of beating Obama.

I also suggested that Obama supporters have a little patience. There was a dearth of current state head-to-head match-ups for this race, except for a large SurveyUSA series from early 2007. Surely things have changed since then. Judging by how Giuliani has gone from strongly leading Clinton through most of the first half of this year to Clinton currently leading Giuliani, it is fair to surmise that Giuliani has lost much of his luster since early in the year.

Indeed, it seems to be true for the Obama—Giuliani race as well. After 10,000 simulated elections, Obama wins 2,097 times, Giuliani wins 7,777 times, and there are 126 ties. Obama seems to have a 21.0% chance of winning (plus a bonus 0.1% chance if the Electoral College election ended in a tie). Giuliani is down from a 99.3% chance of winning a month ago to a 77.8% chance if the election were held today.

This is a little worse that Obama did six days age where he won 32%. But with something over ten more months to go before the General, the larger momentum probably favors Obama.

Here is the distribution of electoral votes from the simulations:

  • 10000 simulations: Obama wins 21.0%, Giuliani wins 77.8%.
  • Average ( SE) EC votes for Obama: 252.3 ( 20.4)
  • Average (SE) EC votes for Giuliani: 285.7 ( 20.4)
  • Median (95% CI) EC votes for Obama: 253 (213, 290)
  • Median (95% CI) EC votes for Giuliani: 285 (248, 325)
State EC Votes # polls Total Votes % Obama % Giuliani Obama %wins Giuliani %wins
Alabama 9 1* 492 40.9 59.1 0.0 100.0
Alaska 3 0 (0) (100)
Arizona 10 1* 453 44.6 55.4 1.5 98.5
Arkansas 6 1 405 51.9 48.1 78.5 21.5
California 55 1* 508 56.5 43.5 99.6 0.4
Colorado 9 1* 455 49.5 50.5 40.2 59.8
Connecticut 7 1* 884 50.0 50.0 50.0 50.0
Delaware 3 0 (100) (0)
D.C. 3 0 (100) (0)
Florida 27 1 922 45.1 54.9 0.1 99.9
Georgia 15 1* 440 42.0 58.0 0.2 99.9
Hawaii 4 0 (100) (0)
Idaho 4 0 (0) (100)
Illinois 21 1* 450 62.2 37.8 100.0 0.0
Indiana 11 0 (0) (100)
Iowa 7 1 492 60.8 39.2 100.0 0.0
Kansas 6 1* 481 47.2 52.8 10.7 89.3
Kentucky 8 1* 504 41.9 58.1 0.0 100.0
Louisiana 9 0 (0) (100)
Maine 4 0 (100) (0)
Maryland 10 0 (100) (0)
Massachusetts 12 1* 484 51.4 48.6 74.7 25.3
Michigan 17 1* 558 49.5 50.5 38.6 61.4
Minnesota 10 1 510 47.6 52.4 13.5 86.5
Mississippi 6 0 (0) (100)
Missouri 11 2 915 51.9 48.1 87.2 12.8
Montana 3 0 (0) (100)
Nebraska 5 0 (0) (100)
Nevada 5 1* 516 48.8 51.2 28.5 71.5
New Hampshire 4 1* 416 49.8 50.2 45.5 54.6
New Jersey 15 1 415 50.6 49.4 60.4 39.6
New Mexico 5 1 486 47.3 52.7 11.3 88.7
New York 31 1 563 52.2 47.8 86.5 13.5
North Carolina 15 1 407 48.4 51.6 24.3 75.7
North Dakota 3 0 (0) (100)
Ohio 20 4 2395 49.7 50.3 33.8 66.2
Oklahoma 7 1* 437 38.0 62.0 0.0 100.0
Oregon 7 1* 476 56.1 43.9 99.2 0.8
Pennsylvania 21 1 896 50.0 50.0 49.6 50.4
Rhode Island 4 1* 434 60.6 39.4 100.0 0.0
South Carolina 8 0 (0) (100)
South Dakota 3 0 (0) (100)
Tennessee 11 1* 474 44.9 55.1 1.9 98.1
Texas 34 1* 541 40.7 59.3 0.0 100.0
Utah 5 0 (0) (100)
Vermont 3 0 (100) (0)
Virginia 13 1* 488 52.3 47.7 85.1 14.9
Washington 11 1 477 59.1 40.9 100.0 0.0
West Virginia 5 0 (0) (100)
Wisconsin 10 2 912 53.2 46.8 97.0 3.0
Wyoming 3 0 (0) (100)

* denotes that an older poll was used

Details of the methods are given here.

The most recent analysis in this and other match-ups can be found from this page.

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