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Wednesday, December 19, 2007 at 9:33 pm by Darryl

Poll Analysis: Washington, Oregon, and New Mexico Slightly Bump Clinton’s Lead Over Giuliani

Clinton Giuliani
Wins 99.9% Wins 0.1%
Mean of 333 electoral votes Mean of 205 electoral votes

Electoral College Map

Washington Oregon Idaho Montana Wyoming North Dakota South Dakota Minnesota Wisconsin Iowa Illinios Indiana Colorado Utah New Mexico Texas Nebraska Oklahoma Kansas Nevada California Arizona Missouri Arkansas Louisiana Mississippi Alabama Tennessee Georgia Kentucky Ohio Michigan Pennsylvania West Virginia Virginia Hawaii Alaska North Carolina South Carolina Florida New York Vermont New Hampshire Maine Massachusetts Rhode Island Connecticut New Jersey Delaware Maryland District of Columbia

There were three new state head-to-head polls released today:

For Clinton these results are nothing but good news. She beats Giuliani, Romney and Huckabee in all three states. In Washington state she beats McCain by a whopping 57% to 35%. In Oregon she and McCain tie at 46%, and in New Mexico, McCain beats Clinton 48% to 45%.

In the Clinton-Giuliani race in Washington State, Clinton has a remarkable 54% to 41% lead. This is a bit of an improvement over her 50% to 43% lead last month in a SurveyUSA poll. For Oregon, Clinton’s 46% to 45% lead has tightened up since last month.

New Mexico has been indecisive this year, but the state seems to be settling for Clinton. The current poll has Clinton leading Giuliani by 49% to 46%. Here is a summary of the New Mexico polls (using normalized percentages—that is, the sum of the Clinton and Giuliani percentages is 100%) :

NM Poll Start date End date Sample size MOE %Clinton %Giuliani
SurveyUSA 13-Dec-07 15-Dec-07 523 4.4 51.6 48.4
SurveyUSA 09-Nov-07 11-Nov-07 506 4.4 51.8 48.2
SurveyUSA 12-Oct-07 14-Oct-07 495 4.5 49.5 50.5
SurveyUSA 14-Sep-07 16-Sep-07 515 4.4 54.3 45.7
SurveyUSA 08-Jun-07 10-Jun-07 512 4.4 53.2 46.8
SurveyUSA 11-May-07 13-May-07 514 4.4 49.5 50.5
SurveyUSA 13-Apr-07 15-Apr-07 511 4.4 48.9 51.1

My analysis yesterday showed Giuliani winning only 0.2% of the simulated elections. With these new polls, after 10,000 simulated elections, Clinton wins 9,990 times (plus she wins the 3 ties) and Giuliani wins only 7 times, or about 0.1% of the time.

  • 10000 simulations: Clinton wins 99.9%, Giuliani wins 0.1%.
  • Average ( SE) EC votes for Clinton: 333.0 ( 19.7)
  • Average (SE) EC votes for Giuliani: 205.0 ( 19.7)
  • Median (95% CI) EC votes for Clinton: 334 (292, 369)
  • Median (95% CI) EC votes for Giuliani: 204 (169, 246)
State EC Votes # polls Total Votes % Clinton % Giuliani Clinton %wins Giuliani %wins
Alabama 9 1* 450 46.7 53.3 7.6 92.4
Alaska 3 0 (0) (100)
Arizona 10 1 425 44.7 55.3 1.5 98.5
Arkansas 6 1 420 58.3 41.7 99.9 0.1
California 55 1* 468 56.0 44.0 99.0 1.0
Colorado 9 1 420 47.6 52.4 14.7 85.3
Connecticut 7 1* 445 51.7 48.3 78.4 21.6
Delaware 3 0 (100) (0)
D.C. 3 0 (100) (0)
Florida 27 1 1001 53.9 46.1 99.4 0.6
Georgia 15 1* 460 47.8 52.2 15.9 84.1
Hawaii 4 0 (100) (0)
Idaho 4 0 (0) (100)
Illinois 21 1* 435 51.7 48.3 77.9 22.1
Indiana 11 0 (0) (100)
Iowa 7 1 478 52.7 47.3 89.2 10.8
Kansas 6 1 425 42.4 57.6 0.3 99.7
Kentucky 8 1* 514 51.8 48.2 81.0 19.0
Louisiana 9 0 (0) (100)
Maine 4 1* 347 56.5 43.5 98.8 1.2
Maryland 10 1* 425 56.5 43.5 99.2 0.8
Massachusetts 12 1 430 59.3 40.7 100.0 0.0
Michigan 17 1* 425 55.3 44.7 98.0 1.9
Minnesota 10 1 517 56.9 43.1 99.7 0.3
Mississippi 6 0 (0) (100)
Missouri 11 2 925 53.2 46.8 96.9 3.1
Montana 3 0 (0) (100)
Nebraska 5 0 (0) (100)
Nevada 5 1* 1938 49.5 50.5 27.2 72.8
New Hampshire 4 1* 425 50.6 49.4 61.0 39.0
New Jersey 15 2 1400 52.7 47.3 97.4 2.6
New Mexico 5 1 497 51.5 48.5 76.7 23.3
New York 31 2 1489 59.5 40.5 100.0 0.0
North Carolina 15 1 388 45.9 54.1 4.8 95.2
North Dakota 3 0 (0) (100)
Ohio 20 4 2470 53.2 46.8 100.0 0.0
Oklahoma 7 1* 463 48.4 51.6 22.2 77.8
Oregon 7 1* 476 50.6 49.4 61.0 39.0
Pennsylvania 21 1 960 50.0 50.0 50.4 49.6
Rhode Island 4 1* 468 65.8 34.2 100.0 0.0
South Carolina 8 1 1026 50.5 49.5 63.2 36.8
South Dakota 3 0 (0) (100)
Tennessee 11 1* 435 48.3 51.7 21.4 78.6
Texas 34 1* 445 43.8 56.2 0.9 99.1
Utah 5 1 440 29.5 70.5 0.0 100.0
Vermont 3 0 (100) (0)
Virginia 13 1* 488 50.0 50.0 51.0 49.0
Washington 11 1 487 56.9 43.1 99.7 0.3
West Virginia 5 1* 312 53.8 46.2 91.2 8.8
Wisconsin 10 2 904 50.4 49.6 62.1 37.9
Wyoming 3 0 (0) (100)

* denotes that an older poll was used

Details of the methods are given here.

The most recent analysis in this and other match-ups can be found from this page.

Posted in Poll analysis, politics

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