Thursday, November 29, 2007 at 9:49 pm by Darryl
|Wins 4.4%||Wins 95.3%|
|Mean of 234 electoral votes||Mean of 304 electoral votes|
I’ve been reluctant to publish an analysis of Edwards versus other candidates simply because there are not very many polls with state-level general election match-ups that include Edwards. For example, I have 204 state-level polls pitting Clinton against Giuliani, 118 such poll for Obama against Giuliani, but only 47 polls for Edwards against Giuliani. More problematic is that only Quinnipiac and Research 2000 have been publishing recent match-up polls with Edwards. SurveyUSA largely gave up polling on Edwards in September.
So, with the caveat that there are relatively few polls and even fewer recent polls, here are the results of 10,000 simulated elections. Edwards wins 437 such elections, Giuliani wins 9,532, and there are 31 ties. If the election were held today (and all the polls were current) we would expect Edwards to have a 4.4% (plus 0.3% for the ties) chance of winning the general election. Giuliani would seem to have a 95.3% chance of winning.
For what it is worth, Edwards is doing better than Obama is against Giuliani.
- 10000 simulations: Edwards wins 4.4%, Giuliani wins 95.3%.
- Average ( SE) EC votes for Edwards: 233.5 ( 22.8)
- Average (SE) EC votes for Giuliani: 304.5 ( 22.8)
- Median (95% CI) EC votes for Edwards: 234 (174, 275)
- Median (95% CI) EC votes for Giuliani: 304 (263, 364)
* denotes that an older poll was used
Details of the methods are given here.
The most recent analysis in this and other match-ups can be from from this page.