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Thursday, November 29, 2007 at 9:49 pm by Darryl

Poll Analysis: First Look at Edwards v. Giuliani

Edwards Giuliani
Wins 4.4% Wins 95.3%
Mean of 234 electoral votes Mean of 304 electoral votes

Electoral College Map

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I’ve been reluctant to publish an analysis of Edwards versus other candidates simply because there are not very many polls with state-level general election match-ups that include Edwards. For example, I have 204 state-level polls pitting Clinton against Giuliani, 118 such poll for Obama against Giuliani, but only 47 polls for Edwards against Giuliani. More problematic is that only Quinnipiac and Research 2000 have been publishing recent match-up polls with Edwards. SurveyUSA largely gave up polling on Edwards in September.

So, with the caveat that there are relatively few polls and even fewer recent polls, here are the results of 10,000 simulated elections. Edwards wins 437 such elections, Giuliani wins 9,532, and there are 31 ties. If the election were held today (and all the polls were current) we would expect Edwards to have a 4.4% (plus 0.3% for the ties) chance of winning the general election. Giuliani would seem to have a 95.3% chance of winning.

For what it is worth, Edwards is doing better than Obama is against Giuliani.

  • 10000 simulations: Edwards wins 4.4%, Giuliani wins 95.3%.
  • Average ( SE) EC votes for Edwards: 233.5 ( 22.8)
  • Average (SE) EC votes for Giuliani: 304.5 ( 22.8)
  • Median (95% CI) EC votes for Edwards: 234 (174, 275)
  • Median (95% CI) EC votes for Giuliani: 304 (263, 364)
State EC Votes # polls Total Votes %Edwards %Giuliani Edwards %wins Giuliani %wins
Alabama 9 1* 436 44.5 55.5 1.4 98.6
Alaska 3 0 (0) (100)
Arizona 10 1* 463 45.8 54.2 3.7 96.3
Arkansas 6 0 (0) (100)
California 55 1* 443 53.7 46.3 94.1 5.9
Colorado 9 0 (0) (100)
Connecticut 7 1 895 47.2 52.8 5.0 95.0
Delaware 3 0 (100) (0)
D.C. 3 0 (100) (0)
Florida 27 1* 871 48.2 51.8 14.2 85.8
Georgia 15 0 (0) (100)
Hawaii 4 0 (100) (0)
Idaho 4 0 (0) (100)
Illinois 21 0 (100) (0)
Indiana 11 0 (0) (100)
Iowa 7 1 534 55.1 44.9 98.7 1.3
Kansas 6 1* 436 44.5 55.5 1.4 98.6
Kentucky 8 1* 488 46.3 53.7 5.3 94.7
Louisiana 9 0 (0) (100)
Maine 4 0 (100) (0)
Maryland 10 0 (100) (0)
Massachusetts 12 0 (100) (0)
Michigan 17 1* 580 55.9 44.1 99.5 0.5
Minnesota 10 0 (100) (0)
Mississippi 6 0 (0) (100)
Missouri 11 1 696 54.0 46.0 98.2 1.9
Montana 3 0 (0) (100)
Nebraska 5 0 (0) (100)
Nevada 5 1* 516 46.5 53.5 5.6 94.4
New Hampshire 4 1* 443 47.2 52.8 11.2 88.8
New Jersey 15 1* 1095 43.8 56.2 0.0 100.0
New Mexico 5 1* 462 52.2 47.8 83.9 16.1
New York 31 1* 1339 49.4 50.6 31.7 68.3
North Carolina 15 1* 496 50.6 49.4 62.3 37.7
North Dakota 3 0 (0) (100)
Ohio 20 1 1058 53.5 46.5 99.1 1.0
Oklahoma 7 1* 439 55.1 44.9 98.1 1.9
Oregon 7 1* 470 51.7 48.3 78.9 21.1
Pennsylvania 21 1 764 42.7 57.3 0.0 100.0
Rhode Island 4 0 (100) (0)
South Carolina 8 0 (0) (100)
South Dakota 3 0 (0) (100)
Tennessee 11 0 (0) (100)
Texas 34 0 (0) (100)
Utah 5 0 (0) (100)
Vermont 3 0 (100) (0)
Virginia 13 1* 397 46.9 53.1 10.0 90.0
Washington 11 1* 430 50.5 49.5 58.5 41.5
West Virginia 5 0 (0) (100)
Wisconsin 10 1* 453 49.4 50.6 39.5 60.5
Wyoming 3 0 (0) (100)

* denotes that an older poll was used

Details of the methods are given here.

The most recent analysis in this and other match-ups can be from from this page.

Posted in Poll analysis, politics

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2 Responses to “Poll Analysis: First Look at Edwards v. Giuliani”

  1. SeattleDan Says:

    Thursday, November 29th, 2007 at 10:18 pm

    Gotta think that in a real Presidential campaign that Edwards would kick Rudy’s butt, no matter what the early polls say. Rudy seems to be sinking into deep doo-doo, just ask Judith Regan. I don’t see him as the GOP candidate. But I’m often wrong and no Cassandra.

  2. Darryl Says:

    Thursday, November 29th, 2007 at 10:51 pm

    Hi SeattleDan,
    Yeah…I think you are correct. Giuliani was doing much better earlier in the year, and lost his luster beginning in June. I think current polls would show both Edwards and Obama doing better against him than my analyses suggest.

    But, I picked my poll-selection algorithm and I am going to stick with it….

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