Saturday, November 3, 2007 at 3:00 pm by Darryl
Poll Analysis: Satterberg Probably Successful in Purchasing His First Election
A new SurveyUSA poll of 624 King County voters, 34% of whom have already cast a ballot, looks at the King County Prosecutor’s race.
The poll shows Satterberg with a remarkable 50% to 42% lead with just 8% undecided. I ran 100,000 simulated elections of 624 voters each voting at the proportions observed. The result suggests a 97.8% chance that Satterberg will win the election and a 2.2% chance that Sherman will win the election.
I call this remarkable because the previous SurveyUSA poll showed Sherman with a healthy lead.
The difference between then and now? Republicans dumped a great big pile of money into the race. Satterberg is out-spending Sherman by a 4 to 1 margin!
Congratulations, Mr. Satterberg, you have just purchased your first election!
Tuesday, November 6th, 2007 at 12:18 am
Darryl,
How do we replace the friggin parties?