Hominid Views

Obama
McCain

100.0% probability of winning
0.0% probability of winning

Mean of 369 electoral votes
Mean of 169 electoral votes

Yesterday’s analysis showed Sen. Barack Obama leading Sen. John McCain by 369 to 169 electoral votes. For today, we get to add in 42 new polls representing 23 states. But no big surprises emerges, [...]

There were lots and lots of polls released today. In the race between Sen. Barack Obama and Sen. John McCain we have 42 new polls representing 23 states. No big surprises in the race—which is good news for Obama.
In Senate races there were 34 new polls covering 16 states. [...]

8th District Representative Dave Reichert, the former Washington State Chair of Giuliani’s presidential campaign who endorsed John McCain immediately after Giuliani dropped-out, has been caught copying the Neocon smear tactic of attacking achievement, lying (or sinning) about his own academic credentials, and cheating to score some beaucoup “bacon” for his campaign of smears.
Evidently, Reichert—or his [...]

Obama
McCain

100.0% probability of winning
0.0% probability of winning

Mean of 369 electoral votes
Mean of 169 electoral votes

Yesterday’s analysis showed Sen. Barack Obama leading Sen. John McCain by 362 to 176 electoral votes.
Today there were 32 new polls in 20 states released. Obama get the better of it.
After 100,000 [...]

There were 32 polls representing 20 states released today in the race between Sen. Barack Obama and Sen. John McCain. All-in-all, it looks like a fair day for Obama. No real surprises and McCain even slips a bit at a time when elections tend to tighten-up.
We also [...]

Perhaps this will offer some context and clarification of the great degree debate between Darcy Burner and Dave Reichert.
[Audio clip: view full post to listen]

Obama
McCain

100.0% probability of winning
0.0% probability of winning

Mean of 362 electoral votes
Mean of 176 electoral votes

Yesterday’s analysis showed Sen. Barack Obama leading Sen. John McCain by 363 to 175 electoral votes. Obama had a 100% chance of winning an election held yesterday.
Today, there were 35 new polls representing 22 [...]

There were lots and lots of polls today…so many that I haven’t counted them. Instead, I’ll offer the tables without commentary. Sorry! I still haven’t made it home this evening…. The Monte Carlo analysis just started running, and I’ll offer an update before midnight (Pacific time).
Presidential Polls: [...]

Gregory Roberts at the Seattle PI writes about congressional candidate (WA-08) Darcy Burner’s early interest in service:

Democratic congressional candidate Darcy Burner may be a relatively inexperienced politician who has never been elected to public office, but she has already held a national position of sorts.
When she was 18 and living with her family in [...]

Obama
McCain

100.0% probability of winning
0.0% probability of winning

Mean of 363 electoral votes
Mean of 175 electoral votes

Yesterday’s analysis showed Sen. Barack Obama leading Sen. John McCain by 376 to 162 electoral votes. Obama would have almost certainly won an election held yesterday.
There were 21 new polls from 17 states released today. [...]

There were 21 new polls from 17 states in the race between Sen. Barack Obama and Sen. John McCain released today. The polls are a mixed bag.
There were six new senatorial polls and a couple of gubernatorial released today, too.
Presidential Polls:

Start
End
Sample

%
%
%

State
Poll
date
date
size
MOE
Obama
McCain
Diff

Arkansas
Rasmussen
27-Oct
27-Oct
500
4.5
44
54
M+10

Colorado
Insider Advantage
26-Oct
26-Oct
636
3.8
53
45
O+8

Florida
LA Times
25-Oct
27-Oct
639
4.0
50
43
O+7

Georgia
PollPosition
27-Oct
27-Oct
637
3.8
47
48
M+1

Indiana
Research 2000
23-Oct
25-Oct
600
4.0
48
47
O+1

Indiana
Howey-Gauge
23-Oct
24-Oct
600
4.1
45
47
M+2

Louisiana
Southeastern Poll
20-Oct
23-Oct
503
4.5
38.3
50.6
M+12.3

Maine
Market [...]

Obama
McCain

100.0% probability of winning
0.0% probability of winning

Mean of 376 electoral votes
Mean of 162 electoral votes

Yesterday’s analysis showed Sen. Barack Obama leading Sen. John McCain by 376 to 162 electoral votes, on average.
Today we got 35 new polls covering 19 states. The net result of all these [...]

Today there were 35 polls covering 19 states in the race between Sen. John McCain and Sen. Barack Obama. There were five new polls just in Virginia, four in Florida, and three in Arizona. Considering the quantity of new polls, there were few surprises.
There were also nine new Senate race polls [...]

Obama
McCain

100.0% probability of winning
0.0% probability of winning

Mean of 376 electoral votes
Mean of 162 electoral votes

Yesterday’s analysis showed Sen. Barack Obama leading Sen. John McCain by 373 to 165 electoral votes (on average). Obama almost certainly would have won an election held yesterday.
With the addition of fifteen new [...]

Senate Democrats*
Senate Republicans

100.0% probability of a majority
0.0% probability of a majority

Mean of 59 seats
Mean of 41 seats

Last weekend’s analysis of the Senate races showed control of the Senate firmly in the hands of the Democrats with, on average, 59.0 seats to the Republican’s 41.0 seat average.
The [...]