Hominid Views

Senate Democrats*
Senate Republicans

100.0% probability of a majority
0.0% probability of a majority

Mean of 56 seats
Mean of 44 seats

The previous analysis was last Friday and showed control of the Senate squarely in the hands of the Democrats with 56.9 to 43.1 expected seats. Since then there have been new [...]

Obama
McCain

100.0% probability of winning
0.0% probability of winning

Mean of 337 electoral votes
Mean of 201 electoral votes

When we left off Yesterday, Sen. Barack Obama was leading Sen. John McCain by 333 to 205 electoral votes. With the release of ten new polls in nine states Obama makes some small gains.
After 100,000 [...]

There were polls released in abundance today….
Presidential Polls:

Quinnipiac poll in Florida
Quinnipiac poll in Ohio
Quinnipiac poll in Pennsylvania
Research 2000 poll in Idaho
Research 2000 poll in Kentucky
Public Policy Institute of California poll in California
Rasmussen poll in Kentucky
Rasmussen poll in Texas
Rasmussen poll in Montana
Insider Advantage poll in Georgia

In Florida Sen. Barack Obama leads Sen. John McCain, 44% [...]

What is this world coming to when a high-powered attorney to sports stars (and a now-deceased famous talk-radio host) goes on the attack against a lowly blogger?
You see, Bradley Marshall, attorney extraordinaire (well… if you don’t count the recent 18 month suspension of his license) just sent a letter to Seattle liberal blogger and [...]

Obama
McCain

100.0% probability of winning
0.0% probability of winning

Mean of 333 electoral votes
Mean of 205 electoral votes

Yesterday’s analysis showed Sen. Barack Obama leading Sen. John McCain by 333 to 205 electoral votes. In a hypothetical election held now, Obama would win with near certainty.
There were new polls released in Michigan, Nebraska, [...]

Strategic Vision has released a July poll that includes the Washington state gubernatorial contest. The poll shows Gov. Christine Gregoire (D) leading challenger Dino Rossi (GOP-Party) 47% to 45%, with 8% “undecided”. The poll of 800 people was taken from July 25th to July 27th, and has a margin of [...]

Presidential Polls:

Public Policy Polling (PPP) poll in Michigan
Rasmussen poll in Nebraska
Rasmussen poll in Mississippi

The Michigan race continues to be close, but in Sen. Barack Obama’s favor. Obama leads Sen. John McCain 46% to 43%. The previous poll (by Quinnipiac) gave Obama a +4% lead, and the poll before that (by EPIC/MRA) gave Obama [...]

Obama
McCain

100.0% probability of winning
0.0% probability of winning

Mean of 333 electoral votes
Mean of 205 electoral votes

Saturday’s analysis showed Sen. Barack Obama leading Sen. John McCain by 316 to 222 electoral votes (on average) and, in an election held then, would have a 99.7% chance of winning.
There were three new [...]

After a two day break, the pollsters come through with a few.
Presidential Polls:

Public Policy Polling (PPP) poll in North Carolina
Strategic Vision poll in Pennsylvania
Strategic Vision poll in Washington

In North Carolina, Sen. John McCain leads Sen. Barack Obama 47% to 44%. This matches the +3% lead from mid-July Civitas and Rasmussen polls. [...]

Democratic Governors
Republican Governors

Mean of 29 seats
Mean of 21 seats

It has been a long time since I’ve posted on the gubernatorial races. But given that there are no new state head-to-head polls for the presidential, senatorial or gubernatorial races whatsoever, I’ll provide a more in-depth look at these races. [...]

From UPI:

The Center for Media and Public Affairs at George Mason University in Virginia, which has studied network news since the 1980s, analyzed content on ABC, CBS and NBC news shows and found that when reporters and anchors expressed opinions they were significantly more negative toward Obama and more positive toward McCain, the Los Angeles [...]

Obama
McCain

99.7% probability of winning
0.3% probability of winning

Mean of 316 electoral votes
Mean of 222 electoral votes

Yesterday’s Monte Carlo analysis showed Sen. Barack Obama leading Sen. John McCain by 316 to 220 Electors in a general election held now. The analysis gave Obama a 99.7% chance of winning such an election.
We [...]

…while you get a belly full of beer. There were two new head-to-head polls for presidential races released today.
Also, when I get bits of time, I’ve been playing around with the way the reports are presented. Let me know if you think something is amiss.
Presidential Polls:

Research 2000 poll [...]

Senator McMix-up-a-lot (via The Jed Report).
Jon with Hit an Run (via OneGoodMove).
Obama’s Global Diplomacy:

The full video:

Olbermann’s observations.
Young Turks: Obama speaks.
Young Turks: Obama “gets” America.
Ann Telnaes: Green with McEnvy.
McCain “fights” back (via TalkingPointsMemo).

Red State Update: Foreigners love Obama.
McCain contradicts himself (or outright lies?) (via The Jed Report).
Goldy and friends Podcast Liberally at Seattle’s chapter of [...]

Obama
McCain

99.6% probability of winning
0.3% probability of winning

Mean of 316 electoral votes
Mean of 222 electoral votes

Yesterday’s analysis showed Sen. Barack Obama leading Sen. John McCain by 316 to 222 Electors in a general election held now. Obama, who has generally had a near 100% chance of winning in recent weeks, [...]