Hominid Views

Obama
McCain

30.0% probability of winning
69.3% probability of winning

Mean of 257 electoral votes
Mean of 281 electoral votes

Last Monday, Sen. Barack Obama had about a 16% chance of defeating Sen. John McCain in a general election. Today, I added three new polls to the mix, and Obama gains significant ground in his [...]

Clinton
McCain

41.8% probability of winning
56.8% probability of winning

Mean of 263 electoral votes
Mean of 275 electoral votes

Two days ago, Sen. Hillary Clinton had about a 25% chance of defeating Sen. John McCain in a general election. Today, after three new polls weigh in on the election, Clinton nearly pulls even with [...]

Three new state head-to-head polls get thrown into the mix today…

Alabama Education Association poll in Alabama
Monmouth University poll in New Jersey
Cronkite-Eight poll in Arizona

In Alabama, Sen. John McCain beats both Sen. Hillary Clinton and Sen. Barack Obama at 55% to 36%. The results are consistent with all Alabama polls taken this year.
One [...]

The only thing out of place about this article is that it isn’t published in The Onion:

TROUBLED WA Opposition leader Troy Buswell has broken down in tears at a press conference and admitted he sniffed the chair of a female Liberal Party staffer.
With tears in his eyes, Mr Buswell had to compose himself before telling [...]

Obama
McCain

15.0% probability of winning
84.0% probability of winning

Mean of 246 electoral votes
Mean of 292 electoral votes

Last Saturday, Sen. Barack Obama had about a 36% probability of beating Sen. John McCain in a general election. Today, a new poll in Wisconsin that weighs in on this race.
After 10,000 simulated [...]

Clinton
McCain

21.4% probability of winning
75.1% probability of winning

Mean of 252 electoral votes
Mean of 286 electoral votes

On Saturday, Sen. Hillary Clinton had about a 34% probability of beating Sen. John McCain in a general election. Today, there is but one new poll in Wisconsin that weighs in on this [...]

The only new state head-to-head poll released today was from the University of Wisconsin: The Badger Poll of Wisconsin voters
The poll was taken on 521 Wisconsin voters between 15 and 24 April. Sen. John McCain leads Sen. Hillary Clinton 47% to 41%. A few days before this poll was taken, [...]

Daniel at On the Road to 2008 has just published the first post in what should be an excellent series of posts examining the real voting record of Rep. Dave Reichert (R-WA-08):

…there is a pattern to Reichert’s voting record that is not being reported where he opposes legislation from being considered or coming to a [...]

Obama
McCain

25.6% probability of winning
73.8% probability of winning

Mean of 254 electoral votes
Mean of 284 electoral votes

On Thursday, Sen. Barack Obama had a 21.4% chance of beating Sen. John McCain in a general election. Today there are four new polls added to the mix. As a result, Obama gains a [...]

Clinton
McCain

31.5% probability of winning
65.8% probability of winning

Mean of 262 electoral votes
Mean of 276 electoral votes

A couple of days ago, Sen. Hillary Clinton had only a 19.3% chance of beating Sen. John McCain in a general election. Today there are four new polls to weigh in on this race. [...]

There were four new polls released in the last couple of days:

Rasmussen Poll in Pennsylvania
Rasmussen poll in Massachusetts
Research 2000 poll in Iowa
WTHR/Indianapolis Star poll in Indiana conducted by Selzer & Co.

In Pennsylvania, Sen. Hillary Clinton leads Sen. John McCain 47% to 42%. Clinton led in the first three polls taken in April, and she [...]

Letterman with a political opening monologue.
Indiana Republican congressional candidate apparently doesn’t notice he is addressesing…umm…an unusual group:
Bill Maher: Tonight’s Real Time opening monologue.
Focus on Faux:

FAUX Business Network is Worst Person in the World!
FAUX News is wrong about Obama.

Bushed! Three Bush administration scandals.
Goldy and friends with another edition of Podcasting Liberally.
Josh Marshall with a [...]

Obama
McCain

21.0% probability of winning
78.6% probability of winning

Mean of 248 electoral votes
Mean of 290 electoral votes

Yesterday it looked like Sen. Barack Obama was losing ground against Sen. John McCain. He slipped to a 20% probability of beating McCain in a general election. With two new polls released today, [...]

Clinton
McCain

18.2% probability of winning
80.7% probability of winning

Mean of 256 electoral votes
Mean of 282 electoral votes

Yesterday it looked like Sen. Hillary Clinton was losing ground against Sen. John McCain. She fell to a 17.4% probability of beating McCain in a general election. With two new polls released today, [...]

Two new state head-to-head polls came to my attention today:

Rasmussen poll in Minnesota.
Research 2000 poll in Indiana.

In Minnesota, Sen. Hillary Clinton leads Sen. John McCain 47% to 42%. Clinton led by only 1% iin last week’s SurveyUSA poll. The candidates split the two March polls.
Sen. Barack Obama leads McCain 52% [...]