Hominid Views

Clinton
McCain

1.2% probability of winning
98.6% probability of winning

Mean of 222 electoral votes
Mean of 316 electoral votes

My last analysis showed Clinton with a 0.1% chance of beating McCain. But the most recent polls have swung in Clinton’s favor. After 10,000 simulated elections using the most recent head-to-head [...]

Obama
McCain

0.0% probability of winning
100.0% probability of winning

Mean of 197 electoral votes
Mean of 341 electoral votes

A week ago Obama only earned an average of 184 electoral votes in simulated match-ups with McCain. The most recent polls have been in Obama’s favor. Now, after 10,000 simulated elections, Obama still [...]

The state head-to-head polls have been few and far between in the thick of the primary season. Three new polls have been released in the last few days:

Minnesota Public Radio News and Humphrey Institute Poll in Minnesota.
Research 2000 poll in Illinois.
Research 2000 poll in Missouri.

Earlier this month, a

Damn…this really sucks. More information.
Oh…if you are unhappy about this, Andrew has made it easy for your voice to be heard.
Update: McJoan at DailyKos weighs in.

Last fall he looked unstoppable. Now Rudy Giuliani’s campaign has deflated (something akin to the last deflation of the Hindenburg).
According to CNN the Giuliani campaign might fold and endorse Sen. John McCain:

A source close to Giuliani confirmed that discussions were taking place and said there is talk among the staff that an [...]

Glen Greenwald documented the (lack of) progress on the FISA bill today. The Democrats actually accomplished something by blocking one Republican’s cloture vote:

Preventing a vote today means that there is more time to work on opposing immunity, including by working on ensuring that the House stays firm behind its relatively decent bill. [...]

Man, for a liberal, John McCain is sure a war mongerer:

Sen. John McCain told a crowd of supporters on Sunday, “It’s a tough war we’re in. It’s not going to be over right away. There’s going to be other wars.” Offering more of his increasingly bleak “straight talk,” he repeated the claim: “I’m sorry to [...]

Oh, great! From The New York Times:

A disabled American spy satellite is rapidly descending and is likely to plunge to Earth by late February or early March, posing a potential danger from its debris, officials said Saturday.
Officials said that they had no control over the nonfunctioning satellite and that it was unknown [...]

Headzup: Mr. 9-11:

Dan Abrams with another episode of Winners and Losers.
Jon Stewart looks at Bush during recess (via OneGoodMove).
Dan Savage in South Carolina.
David Letterman is smitten by Mitt (via OneGoodMove).
Neil Cavuto of Faux News is Worst Person in the World!
Another episode of Oddball.
Goldy has a regular Saturday and Sunday night “On-air Blog” called The David [...]

Obama
Romney

100.0% probability of winning
0.0% probability of winning

Mean of 378 electoral votes
Mean of 160 electoral votes

Five days ago Obama beat Romney 100% of the time with a mean of 374 electoral votes. Now after 10,000 simulated elections, Obama improves his showing slightly. He still wins 100% of the [...]

Clinton
Romney

100.0% probability of winning
0.0% probability of winning

Mean of 386 electoral votes
Mean of 152 electoral votes

Two polls (Rasmussen, Mason-Dixon) released today suggest that Romney is in a good position to win the Florida primary. Maybe it is a fluke…McCain has generally been winning in Florida until today. [...]

Obama
McCain

0.0% probability of winning
100.0% probability of winning

Mean of 184 electoral votes
Mean of 354 electoral votes

Obama has not made any headway since my last analysis. In fact, his average electoral votes have slipped from 198. Now, after 10,000 simulated elections, Obama loses every one and has a mean [...]

Clinton
McCain

0.1% probability of winning
99.9% probability of winning

Mean of 211 electoral votes
Mean of 327 electoral votes

A couple of days ago Clinton only had a 0.5% chance of beating McCain. Given a new series of somewhat surprising polls, Clinton has slipped a bit.
After 10,000 simulated elections, Clinton only wins [...]

SurveyUSA unleashed six new state head-to-head match-up polls today:

SurveyUSA poll in Minnesota
SurveyUSA poll in Wisconsin
SurveyUSA poll in New York
SurveyUSA poll in New Mexico
SurveyUSA poll in Massachusetts
SurveyUSA poll in California

This mostly blue collection of states has some surprising results. First the unsurprising results: Obama and Clinton beat all Republican challengers in California and [...]

Obama
Giuliani

95.6% probability of winning
3.9% probability of winning

Mean of 306 electoral votes
Mean of 232 electoral votes

Two weeks ago Obama was beating Giuliani about 82% of the time. Since then, Obama has gained in strength a little. After 10,000 simulated elections, Obama wins 9,556 times (plus the 53 ties) [...]