Hominid Views

There are a few polls to write about on this mid-summer Friday. For the presidential contest we have the following:

Strategic Vision poll in New Jersey
Rasmussen poll in New Jersey
Research 2000 poll in Alaska
Rasmussen poll in Maine

In Virginia McCain has a +1% edge over Obama, 48% to 47% with leaner. (Using the [...]

Obama
McCain

100.0% probability of winning
0.0% probability of winning

Mean of 318 electoral votes
Mean of 220 electoral votes

Yesterday’s analysis showed Sen. Barack Obama leading Sen. John McCain by 319 Electors (on average) to 219 Electors. If an election were held yesterday, Obama would have a near-100% probability of beating McCain.
There were [...]

There were a couple of head-to-head polls to report on for the presidential race today:

Rasmussen poll in Washington state
Research 2000 poll in Missouri

I mentioned the Washington state poll yesterday. Sen. Barack Obama leads Sen. John McCain 48% to 39%. This single digit lead replicates a late June Strategies 360 poll. [...]

Obama
McCain

88.1% probability of winning
9.1% probability of winning

Mean of 288 electoral votes
Mean of 250 electoral votes

On Sunday, Sen. Barack Obama was leading Sen. John McCain 276 electoral votes to 262. The result of a Monte Carlo analysis suggested that Obama would have a 67% chance of defeating McCain, if the [...]

Has the agonizing, prolonged battle between Sen. Hillary Clinton and Sen. Barack Obama helped or harmed the Democratic brand name? This has become a hot topic of debate at dinner tables, in bars, and in car pool across the nation. But mostly the debate has been fueled [...]

There was only one new head-to-head poll released today. Rasmussen released a poll in Connecticut. Sen. Hillary Clinton leads Sen. John McCain 48% to 42%. The result is a slight improvement over the two most recent (March) polls, that both gave Clinton a +3 point lead.
Sen. Barack Obama [...]

Obama
McCain

17.8% probability of winning
80.7% probability of winning

Mean of 258 electoral votes
Mean of 280 electoral votes

The most recent analysis suggested that Sen. Barack Obama would have a 42.6% probability of defeating Sen. John McCain in a general election held yesterday. Today there were seven new polls to add to the mix. [...]

Last month, George Bush showed that he can reach for newer and greater heights when he broke the Gallup poll record for highest disapproval ever recorded for a president over the last 70 years.
The records keep rolling in…but, this month, Bush is an equal opportunity record-breaker. He has reached a new high [...]

Clinton
McCain

79.5% probability of winning
17.0% probability of winning

Mean of 278 electoral votes
Mean of 260 electoral votes

Last Thursday, Sen. Hillary Clinton had a 76.8% chance of winning a general election against Sen. John McCain. With one new poll in Oregon to weigh in, Clinton’s chances have improved markedly.
Today, after 10,000 simulated [...]

Letterman with a political opening monologue.
Indiana Republican congressional candidate apparently doesn’t notice he is addressesing…umm…an unusual group:
Bill Maher: Tonight’s Real Time opening monologue.
Focus on Faux:

FAUX Business Network is Worst Person in the World!
FAUX News is wrong about Obama.

Bushed! Three Bush administration scandals.
Goldy and friends with another edition of Podcasting Liberally.
Josh Marshall with a [...]

Join me other Seattle liberals tonight for another evening of beer, food and politics at the Seattle Chapter of Drinking Liberally. The fun begins around 8:00 p.m. at the Montlake Ale House (2307 24th Avenue E) in Seattle (close to the University of Washington Campus).

Drinking Liberally’s local Seattle hosts are Nick Beaudrot [...]

Join me tonight for another evening of beer, food and politics at the Seattle Chapter of Drinking Liberally. The fun begins around 8:00 p.m. at the Montlake Ale House (2307 24th Avenue E) in Seattle (close to the University of Washington Campus).

Drinking Liberally’s local Seattle hosts are Nick Beaudrot of Electoral Math [...]

Join me tonight for another evening of beer, food and politics at the special State of the Union edition of Drinking Liberally. The fun begins at 6:00 p.m. for the pre-speech coverage. (Normally we begin at 8:00 p.m.) We meet at the Montlake Ale House (2307 24th Avenue E) in [...]

Join me tonight for another evening of beer, food and politics at the first meeting of the year for the Seattle chapter of Drinking Liberally. The fun begins at 8:00 p.m., although people show up for dinner as early as 7:00 p.m. We meet at the Montlake Ale House (2307 24th [...]

Stephen Schwartz, who blogs at SeattleJew.blogspot.com has put together a fun video largely composed of photos taken at the Seattle Chapter of Drinking Liberally. Many (all?) of the DL photos were taken on election night 2006. (If you care to see what I look like, go to 1:30.)
As you [...]