Category Archive for 'meetings'

Friday Polls

Friday, July 18th, 2008

There are a few polls to write about on this mid-summer Friday. For the presidential contest we have the following:

Strategic Vision poll in New Jersey
Rasmussen poll in New Jersey
Research 2000 poll in Alaska
Rasmussen poll in Maine

In Virginia McCain has a +1% edge over Obama, 48% to 47% with leaner. (Using the [...]

Poll Analysis: McCain Swipes One Back From Obama

Tuesday, July 15th, 2008

Obama
McCain

100.0% probability of winning
0.0% probability of winning

Mean of 318 electoral votes
Mean of 220 electoral votes

Yesterday’s analysis showed Sen. Barack Obama leading Sen. John McCain by 319 Electors (on average) to 219 Electors. If an election were held yesterday, Obama would have a near-100% probability of beating McCain.
There were [...]

Saturday Poll Report

Saturday, July 12th, 2008

There were a couple of head-to-head polls to report on for the presidential race today:

Rasmussen poll in Washington state
Research 2000 poll in Missouri

I mentioned the Washington state poll yesterday. Sen. Barack Obama leads Sen. John McCain 48% to 39%. This single digit lead replicates a late June Strategies 360 poll. [...]

Poll Analysis: Obama Makes Big Gains on McCain

Monday, June 16th, 2008

Obama
McCain

88.1% probability of winning
9.1% probability of winning

Mean of 288 electoral votes
Mean of 250 electoral votes

On Sunday, Sen. Barack Obama was leading Sen. John McCain 276 electoral votes to 262. The result of a Monte Carlo analysis suggested that Obama would have a 67% chance of defeating McCain, if the [...]

Are Democrats Helped or Harmed by the “Primary from Hell”?

Monday, June 2nd, 2008

Has the agonizing, prolonged battle between Sen. Hillary Clinton and Sen. Barack Obama helped or harmed the Democratic brand name? This has become a hot topic of debate at dinner tables, in bars, and in car pool across the nation. But mostly the debate has been fueled [...]

Saturday Head-to-head Poll

Saturday, May 31st, 2008

There was only one new head-to-head poll released today. Rasmussen released a poll in Connecticut. Sen. Hillary Clinton leads Sen. John McCain 48% to 42%. The result is a slight improvement over the two most recent (March) polls, that both gave Clinton a +3 point lead.
Sen. Barack Obama [...]

Poll Analysis: McCain Gains on Obama

Thursday, May 22nd, 2008

Obama
McCain

17.8% probability of winning
80.7% probability of winning

Mean of 258 electoral votes
Mean of 280 electoral votes

The most recent analysis suggested that Sen. Barack Obama would have a 42.6% probability of defeating Sen. John McCain in a general election held yesterday. Today there were seven new polls to add to the mix. [...]

Equal Opportunity Record-breaker

Tuesday, May 13th, 2008

Last month, George Bush showed that he can reach for newer and greater heights when he broke the Gallup poll record for highest disapproval ever recorded for a president over the last 70 years.
The records keep rolling in…but, this month, Bush is an equal opportunity record-breaker. He has reached a new high [...]

Poll Analysis: Clinton v. McCain

Saturday, May 10th, 2008

Clinton
McCain

79.5% probability of winning
17.0% probability of winning

Mean of 278 electoral votes
Mean of 260 electoral votes

Last Thursday, Sen. Hillary Clinton had a 76.8% chance of winning a general election against Sen. John McCain. With one new poll in Oregon to weigh in, Clinton’s chances have improved markedly.
Today, after 10,000 simulated [...]

Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza!

Friday, April 25th, 2008

Letterman with a political opening monologue.
Indiana Republican congressional candidate apparently doesn’t notice he is addressesing…umm…an unusual group:
Bill Maher: Tonight’s Real Time opening monologue.
Focus on Faux:

FAUX Business Network is Worst Person in the World!
FAUX News is wrong about Obama.

Bushed! Three Bush administration scandals.
Goldy and friends with another edition of Podcasting Liberally.
Josh Marshall with a [...]

Drinking Liberally

Tuesday, May 22nd, 2007

Join me other Seattle liberals tonight for another evening of beer, food and politics at the Seattle Chapter of Drinking Liberally. The fun begins around 8:00 p.m. at the Montlake Ale House (2307 24th Avenue E) in Seattle (close to the University of Washington Campus).

Drinking Liberally’s local Seattle hosts are Nick Beaudrot [...]

Drinking Liberally

Tuesday, March 20th, 2007

Join me tonight for another evening of beer, food and politics at the Seattle Chapter of Drinking Liberally. The fun begins around 8:00 p.m. at the Montlake Ale House (2307 24th Avenue E) in Seattle (close to the University of Washington Campus).

Drinking Liberally’s local Seattle hosts are Nick Beaudrot of Electoral Math [...]

Drinking Liberally–SOTU Edition

Tuesday, January 23rd, 2007

Join me tonight for another evening of beer, food and politics at the special State of the Union edition of Drinking Liberally. The fun begins at 6:00 p.m. for the pre-speech coverage. (Normally we begin at 8:00 p.m.) We meet at the Montlake Ale House (2307 24th Avenue E) in [...]

Drinking Liberally

Tuesday, January 2nd, 2007

Join me tonight for another evening of beer, food and politics at the first meeting of the year for the Seattle chapter of Drinking Liberally. The fun begins at 8:00 p.m., although people show up for dinner as early as 7:00 p.m. We meet at the Montlake Ale House (2307 24th [...]

Drinking Liberally: The Video

Wednesday, December 13th, 2006

Stephen Schwartz, who blogs at SeattleJew.blogspot.com has put together a fun video largely composed of photos taken at the Seattle Chapter of Drinking Liberally. Many (all?) of the DL photos were taken on election night 2006. (If you care to see what I look like, go to 1:30.)
As you [...]

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