Hominid Views

This headline reads, “Murkowski defeat costs state seniority in US Senate”. Sure. But that is not what is most interesting about Murkowski’s defeat by a Teabagger.

Murkowski’s defeat makes, what, the fifth major victory by a Teabagger over a more mainstream Republican? In every case, the Democratic challenger has a greater probability of winning the election against the Teabagger than the “establishment candidate”. So, my hunch is that, perhaps, two of the Teabaggers in these five races will be defeated by the Democrat. If the mainstream Republican had won…not a chance.

Of course, the Teabagger victories have also caused a bit of a shiver down the collective spine of the Republicans, and caused them all to buy into The Crazy. Republicans are lunging to the right far faster than are their constituents. That ought to be worth a few more D seats this fall.

I guess what I’m saying is…GO TEABAGGERS, ya lovable idiots!!!!

Washington state is one of those states that allows for citizen initiatives—essentially allowing citizens to directly bypass the legislative and executive branches of governments to pass laws. I very rarely support initiatives of any type. But this fall I will be voting for I-1098.

If successful, the initiative will reduce personal property tax, reduce the B&O tax, lower business property tax. In its place, a high-earner’s income tax will be instituted.

My support for I-1098 isn’t so much about how much money I will save. I think my taxes are too low. In fact, Americans, on average, are subjected to the lowest tax burden in the past 60 years. In my opinion, this is a bad sign. Reducing our ability to invest in America will certainly lead to a decline.

What I like about this initiative is that it begins to fix the single biggest problem with the Washington state tax system: it is highly regressive. Even though Washington state has low taxes on average (we were 35th in the country for state and local tax burden in 2008 according to the Tax Foundation), when that average is examined across income category the picture is less rosy: low income people are taxed at one of the highest rates in the country, and wealthy people are taxed at one of the lowest rates in the country. The initiative is a good start at developing a more progressive tax structure.

But many Washingtonians will not vote for a “new” tax for this reason alone. What may convince them to vote for the initiative is the bottom line: more money in their pocket. So, if you are a Washington state resident, check out how much money you will save if I-1098 passes you using this calculator from Economic Opportunity Institute. And then pass the link on to your friends and family.

(H/T Goldy.)

A Right-wing hater strikes in Seattle:

A 35-year-old Seattle man is facing assault and hate crime charges following allegations that he accosted a clerk at a Queen Anne convenience store.
[...]

Writing the court, a Seattle detective said Stainbrook entered the 7-11 store in at 362 Denny Way. The clerk was standing near a coffee machine when Stainbrook accosted him.

“For unknown reasons a person threw change on the floor near the victim’s feet then punched the victim on the left side of the head,” the detective said.

“After the suspect struck (the clerk) with his fist he said, ‘You’re not even American, you’re Al-Qaeda. Go back to your country.’”
[...]

Police arrested Stainbrook walking nearby minutes later. Confronted by police, he allegedly admitted that he “struck a person on his turban” because he disliked him. While the alleged victim’s ethnic background is not noted in court documents, his surname is common within the Sikh community.

One problem with the right-wing strategy of using fear to maintain political power is that the intellectually poorly-endowed members of their community are too incurious about the world to learn that a 7-11 employee wearing a turban is almost certainly from a different part of the world and an entirely different religion than one might expect for an al Qaeda member.

Of coures, this is not to suggest that it would be okay to assault an Arabic Muslim in otherwise similar circumstances. Rather, I am just pointing out that such mistakes are symptomatic of the stoopid that allows the right wing power structure to keep a subset of Americans in a perpetual state of fear….

This report might be more worthy of a media frenzy then, say, the fake “Ground Zero Mosque” bullshit:

A $40 million prison sits in the desert north of Baghdad, empty. A $165 million children’s hospital goes unused in the south. A $100 million waste water treatment system in Fallujah has cost three times more than projected, yet sewage still runs through the streets.

As the U.S. draws down in Iraq, it is leaving behind hundreds of abandoned or incomplete projects. More than $5 billion in U.S. taxpayer funds has been wasted on these projects – more than 10 percent of the $53.7 billion the US has spent on reconstruction in Iraq, according to audits from a U.S. watchdog agency.

That amount is likely an underestimate, based on an analysis of more than 300 reports by auditors with the special inspector general for Iraq reconstruction. And it does not take into account security costs, which have run almost 17 percent for some projects.

There are success stories. Hundreds of police stations, border forts and government buildings have been built, Iraqi security forces have improved after years of training, and a deepwater port at the southern oil hub of Umm Qasr has been restored.

But even completed projects for the most part fell far short of original goals, according to an Associated Press review of hundreds of audits and investigations and visits to several sites. And the verdict is still out on whether the program reached its goal of generating Iraqi good will toward the United States instead of the insurgents.

The article cites example after example of botched projects. This is hardly surprising. When the Bush administration decided to invade Iraq, they did so with no medium- to long-range planning. This blunder was greatly confounded by a profound ignorance of Iraqi cultures and political power structures.

But we broke it, we bought it. And we have paid and paid and paid for this mistake. It’s seems bizarre to me that Wingnuts and Teabaggers are so outraged by bank bailouts (which were enacted under Bush) and the economic stimulus package, but utter hardly a peep over Bush’s Big Folly. One can disagree to some extent about the effectiveness of the bailout and stimulus package, but these were good faith efforts to invest in America following the economic collapse. I mean, if your roof gets blown off, it is not unreasonable to taking out a loan to fix it before the rain destroys the inner structure and property.

But there was nothing investment-like about the Iraq invasion. The Bush administration worked themselves into a Salem Witch Hunt Frenzy over non-existent weapons of mass destruction and made-up ties to al Qaeda. And, sadly, they dragged the rest of us into their frenzy. And they’ll be dragging money out of our wallets to pay for their misadventure for many years to come.

Obama discusses the end of America’s combat mission in Iraq:

Newsy: Biden lays out Democrat’s strategy.

Ed with some Psychotalk from Andrew Napolitano.

The proud GOP’s new crop of teabaggers:

RNC Communications Director Doug Heye: “Whatever it takes to win”.

Nick Turkal is Worst Person in the World!

Republicans Want to Go Back to Ruin:

• Politico: Biden points out that Boehner is “nostalgic for ruin”.
• John Boehner knows the Ways of Washington…he invented ‘em:
• Newsy: Boehner wants to go back to failed policies.
• Mitch McConnell wants more fiscal recklessness.
• Olbermann: Small business owner rebuts Boehner’s economic claims.
• Cantor: We’ll force day one vote on health care repeal (via TalkingPointsMemo).

Teabagging in action: Dick Armey calls Mitch McConnell a coward.

Hate Crimes:

• Newsy: Hater stabs cabbie for being Muslim.
• Olbermann: Hate crime in NYC.
• Koran-burning pastor: We want to send a radical message (via TalkingPointsMemo).
• Jon: ‘Palin Insult Index’ shows ‘R-word’ is way more offensive than ‘N-word’ (via TalkingPointsMemo).

Mark Fiore: The Enchanted Financial Forest.

Ed with some psychotalk from Sylvester Stallone.

Mosque Madness:

• Young Turks: Laura Ingraham’s Mosque hypocrisy.
• Tweety tears up Islamophobic protester
• Rat and Cenk: Glenn Beck’s Ground Zero ban.
• Young Turks: Deconstructing Glenn Beck’s Obama–Muslim nonsense.
• Jon: Is FAUX News Evil or Stupid (via HorsesAss).
• Stephen: ‘Oh My God! I’m a terrorist!’ (via TalkingPointsMemo).
• Young Turks: Anti-Muslim attack ad.
• Thom: Should FAUX News be in Guantanamo for supporting terrorism?
• Stephen on Mosque rug urinator (via TalkingPointsMemo).
• Young Turks: Bloomberg’s speech on the Mosque.
• Pap and Ed expose FAUX News’ Mosque funding
• Young Turks: Black man accosted at “Mosque” protest.
• Jon and Aasif on Peaceful Muslims in Tennessee ruining it for everyone (via TalkingPointsMemo).
• Thom: How long until the right calls for all Muslims to wear crescents on their clothing?
• Newsy: Mosque denied in Kentucky.

TED: The political chemistry of oil (via OneGoodMove).

Allen West is Worst Person in the World!

Greenman with Climate Denial Crock of the Week: “The Earth is Carbon Starved.”:

ONN: Time Announces new version aimed at adults.

Ken Mehlman Comes Out

• Newsy: Mehlman says, “I’m gay.”
• Young Turks: Former RNC Chair Ken Mehlman is gay.

Young Turks: Gov. Patterson makes a phallic gaffe.

Jon on McCain’s victory and other election outcomes (via TalkingPointsMemo).

Teabagging Dr. Martin Luther King, Jr.

• Ed: Glenn Beck’s hate rally.
• Newsy: D.C. bracing for teabagger rally.
• Jon with I have a scheme (via DailyKos).
• Pap and Ed expose Glenn Beck’s racist Tea Party.
• Ed: Glenn Beck is distorting Dr. King’s dream.

Newsy: Judge shuts down stem cell funding.

Dominic Holden asks Sen. Patty Murray why people should vote for her:

Young Turks: Poll shows Republican voters oppose tax cuts.

Rep. Mary Fallen (R-OK) is Worst Person in the World!

The Party of Hate:

• Cenk on The Party of Hate.
• Ed: Republicans dusting off their HATE playbook.
• Olbermann with Dan Savage: Republican Plan is to spread hate.
• Ed: Is the GOP anti-Muslim?
• Olbermann: A Tea Party family history.

Some unidentified shark is Worst Person in the World!

Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.

The Dumb-Ass-O’-The-Day award goes to Noel Sheppard of NewsBusters. Noel watches a video of Rachael Maddow mocking Gov. Christie for making a simple math error, and then concludes that she makes THE VERY SAME ERROR as Gov. Christie. Could it be? (I mean, outside of a Wingnut wet dream?) See for yourself.

Here is the transcript (emphasis added):

MADDOW: Even while talking about the application process, Governor Christie has still been making some basic mistakes as evidenced by his appearance on this network this morning.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
CHRISTIE: We came in eleventh, ten people won, and we lost by 2.2 points…

UNKNOWN MALE: Next year.

CHRISTIE: …to Ohio.

UNKNOWN MALE: Next year.

CHRISTIE: If there’s more money. I doubt there will be. As is obvious to anyone who watches the video or reads

(END VIDEOTAPE)

MADDOW: 2.2? According to the Department of Education, Ohio got 440.8 points in the final phase, and New Jersey got 437.8 points which is not 3 points. It’s 2.2 points. I don’t know if there was a math section, but if there is, I bet that’s Obama’s fault, too.

As is obvious to anyone with a brain who watches the video or reads the transcript…Maddow was mocking Christie when she proclaimed that the difference “is not 3 [...but] 2.2.”

I mean really…Maddow has a PhD. Do knuckledraggers like Noel Sheppard really think they can challenge Dr. Maddow with their ideologically stunted intellect? Yeah…they probably do. But they can’t.

I think this episode just adds a little more evidence to the hypothesis that Wingnuts have a congenital lack of satire.

Sheesh!

And then there is wingnut whackjob Ron Johnson (R) running against Sen. Russ Feingold (D-WA). Johnson doesn’t like Government “handouts”:

In 1979, [Johnson] and his wife, Jane, moved to Oshkosh, where Johnson began his long career at Pacur, a plastics manufacturing company. Whether or not he started Pacur, as his bio says, is a matter of semantics.
[...]

In the 1980s the company expanded through the help of a $2.5 million government bond issued by the city of Oshkosh – a bond that charged below-market interest rates.

Today Johnson rails against government subsidies, saying they go against the free-enterprise system.

“I’m in business,” he said. “I have never lobbied for some special treatment or for a government payment.”

Yeah…right. Republicans hate government…except when they can personally profit from it.

Ruth Marcus assesses John Boehner’s speech before the City Club of Cleaveland that serves as something of a stump speech for his bid to become the next Speaker of the House:

The Ohio Republican offered up a depressing blend of tired ideas, tired-er one-liners (”We’ve tried 19 months of government-as-community-organizer”) and cheap attacks. The cheapest: calling for the firing of Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner and economic adviser Larry Summers.

Boehner said recently that House Republicans would spend August listening to voters before announcing an agenda. Judging from Boehner’s speech, they mostly listened to pollsters, whose big idea apparently was to say “job-killing” as often as possible.

Twelve times, actually. As in “job-killing tax hikes,” “job-killing bills,” “job-killing agenda,” “job-killing federal regulations.” This is bumper-sticker politics, not a real economic plan.

Job killing? WTF?!? It’s like Boehner is auditioning to be Speaker by demonstrating how willingly he will blatantly lie for his party. Boehner counts on many American’s having political amnesia (and, perhaps, political nympholepsy induced by his speech for those who cannot forget). This figure says it all:

Clearly, it was the policies of the previous administration that were job killing. Without question, we are going through a long and difficult recovery, but a recovery is clear happening.

Obama began his first term by pushing a massive stimulus package that, according to most mainstream economists, saved jobs. Some would say the legislation turned the U.S. economy around from the precipice of catastrophe. Today, the nonpartisan Congressional Budget office released a report card on the package (via Reuters):

The massive stimulus package boosted real GDP by up to 4.5 percent in the second quarter of 2010 and put up to 3.3 million people to work, the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office said on Tuesday.

CBO’s latest estimate indicates that the stimulus effort, which remains a political hot potato ahead of the November congressional elections, may have prevented the sluggish U.S. economy from contracting between April and June.
[...]

The massive package of tax cuts, construction spending and enhanced safety-net benefits was passed in February 2009 in the midst of the deepest recession since the 1930s.

It raised employment by between 1.4 million and 3.3 million jobs during the second quarter of this year, CBO estimated.

Measured another way, CBO said the stimulus increased the number of full-time equivalent jobs by up to 4.8 million, as part-time workers shifted to full-time work or employers offered more overtime work.

Without question, the recovery from the Bush recession has been frustratingly slow and bumpy. But the one really BIG bump cannot afford is a Speaker Boehner!

While I confess that I don’t fully understand the issues behind today’s U.S. District Court ruling putting a hold on stem cell research, it seem clear that Congress should now go back and pass a bill similar to the two that George W. Bush vetoed. And they should do it soon, saving, perhaps, tens of millions of dollars litigating the current case.

Doing so would also force some moderate Republicans to decide if issue consistency is more or less important than party unity (as in, unified obstructionism).

The winners of Tuesday’s top-two primary for the Washington state Senate race were Sen. Patty Murray (D) and real estate speculator (and perennial candidate) Dino Rossi (R). Little surprise there. Late last week, Washingtonians got a double dose of post-primary polls matching up Murry and Rossi.

Rasmussen released this poll on Thursday showing Murray leading Rossi 48% to 44% in a poll taken the day before (18 Aug). The sample of 750 is large for Rasmussen—their samples are typically 500 likely voters.

On Friday, Survey USA released a poll taken on the 18th and 19th of August, on a sample of 618 likely voters. The results? A stunning 52% to 45% lead for Rossi!

What is going on? First let me wander off-topic for a minute to point out that in my analyses of past elections, I have found both Rasmussen and Survey USA to be pretty good polling firms for head-to-head general elections. Rasmussen has a bad reputation among liberals, but that is mostly based on their presidential approval tracking poll that IS biased slightly in favor of Bush and against Obama (relative to comparable polls) for the seven years that I have been following it. But approval tracking polls are not the same type of poll as a head-to-head election poll, and Rasmussen does just fine with the latter. Survey USA is sometimes dissed as a liberal polling firm by conservatives. Whatever…their track record is pretty good. Going on just the numbers from state polls during to 2008 presidential, senatorial, and gubernatorial elections, I can’t really tell Survey USA and Rasmussen apart.

During the 2010 election season, some big differences I see is that Rasmussen has greatly increased the number of statewide polls they do; Survey USA has decreased the number of statewide races polled. I have no idea what to make of it. Anyway, onto the race.

Since these two polls were in the field simultaneously, I’ll simply combine them and do my usual Monte Carlo analysis to determine the relative probabilities of each candidate winning based on these polls. Of the combined 1,368 “votes”, Murray and Rossi got 1,289 of them; 46.6% went to Murray and 47.6% went to Rossi. When we normalize these so that they sum to 100%, Murray gets 49.5% and Rossi gets 50.5%. Even with this relatively large sample size, this is clearly a statistical tie.

After simulating a million elections using the observed frequencies and sample sizes, Murray wins 392,801 simulated elections and Rossi wins 599,396 simulated elections. In other words the two polls suggest Murray has a 39.6% probability of beating Rossi. Here is the distribution of wins:

Objectively, those are the results. But, as a Murray supporter, I am not overly daunted. This graph of the polling in this race shows why:

Notice anything odd?

Both of the Survey USA polls conducted for this race favor Rossi uncharacteristically strongly. Most other polls either tend to favor Murray, or show a very slight advantage to Rossi. That’s odd. In fact, when the first Survey USA poll came out, neither camp believed it. I wonder if the Rossi camp believes it now?

Personally, I’m skeptical about the poll. It seems like something is going wrong for Survey USA. And looking at the cross tabs doesn’t help. As N in Seattle points out in the Horses Ass comment threads:

If you take a look at the very last column in the survey’s crosstabs, you’ll see that they show Murray and Rossi tied in “Metro Seattle”.

Really? Murray and Rossi tied in Metro Seattle? I doubt it. N in Seattle shows why:

Based on the population proportion, I assume that means King/Pierce/Snohomish Counties.

We’re now counting a rather more comprehensive “survey”, the primary election. In those three counties, Patty has 53% of the vote to Dino’s 30%. SUSA is asking us to believe that in the general election:

a) about 10% of Patty’s primary voters will switch to Rossi, and

b) every primary voter who chose someone other than Patty will vote for Dino, and

c) the voters who sat out the primary but will vote in the general election (about 1/4 of the electorate, and more strongly Democratic than primary voters) will follow the same pattern as in a) and b)

All of the above would have to happen in “Metro Seattle” for Dino to tie Patty here. It ain’t gonna happen. In fact, it ain’t even gonna happen in the rest of Democratic western Washington either.

I suspect even Dino Rossi would agree with N’s analysis.

Notice that there are two other fairly recent polls on the graph. The earliest is another Rasmussen poll of 750 likely voters taken on 28th of July, and showed Murray up 49% to 47%. That is pretty close to tied. The second (in blue) is from Public Policy Polling (PPP) taken on 27th of July to the 1st of August on 1,204 registered voters. This poll showed Murray leading Rossi, 49% to 46%.

The PPP poll surveyed both the primary election and the general election, which gives us the chance to do a little accuracy-checking. For the primary, PPP found that Teabagger Clint Didier would get about 10% of the vote, Murray would get 47% and Rossi would get 33%. As of Sunday evening, Diddier is at 12.6%, Murray is 46.4% and Rossi is 33.3%. Pretty much spot on, considering it was taken about 18 days earlier.

One last exercise for your consideration. If we combine all four polls taken within the last month, and do the same Monte Carlo analysis, things turn around. There is a total of 3153 votes for either Murray or Rossi, Murray gets 50.6% of them,and Rossi gets 49.4%. Now, Murray wins 682,212 simulated elections, and Rossi wins 313,150 of them. In other words, these four polls give evidence that Murray would win with a 68.5% probability. And that includes the Survey USA poll! Here is the distribution…

The take-home message is that the contest, at this point, is pretty close. But I think the more interesting question that arises from all this is…what the hell happened to Survey USA?!?

Sen. Al Franken on the importance of net neutrality (via OneGoodMove).

Operation Iraqi Freedom Ends:

• Video of last combat troops leaving Iraq.
• Newsy: Last U.S. combat troops leave Iraq.
• Stephen on “The war that ended early (via TalkingPointsMemo).
• Thom and Matt Duss from American Progress: Did Iraqi Freedom end on Obama’s watch?

Plane violates FAA Temporary Flight Restriction zone during Obama’s visit to Seattle.

Some missing shopper is Worst Person in the World!

Obama speaks at Sen. Patty Murray; goes after Republicans event:

Ted Nugent whitewashes his way to Worst Person in the World!

Behold, the Newly Outed Propaganda Wing of the G.O.P.:

• Olbermann: News Corp. makes huge donation to G.O.P. Governors Association.
• Newsy: News Corp donates $1M to GOP
• Cenk: FAUX News makes it official…they are a Republican operative.
• Jon with Following the FAUX money trail (via HorsesAss).

Big choices this fall.

Thom with a KKKraaaaazy Republican alert.

Palin around with fricken KKKrazzzzzyyyyy!!!!

• Cenk with some psychotalk from Palin-endorsed candidate Allen West
• Newsy: Fur flies over dueling “mama grizzly” ads.
• Cenk with some uber-psychotalk from Glenn Beck.
• Ed: Dr. Laura and some of her conservative talk radio friends are completely racist.
• Cenk: Sarah tells Dr. Laura to reload.
• Newsy: Dr. Laura retires from the radio.
• Cenk and Sharpton on Dr. Laura and Palin.
• Cenk with some crazy psychotalk from Ben Quayle.

Maddow on Birfer Queen Orly Taitz.

Sam Seder: Raiding Social Security for giveaways to millionaires?!?:

Republican Deficits:

• Kaine spells out the truth behind the deficit.
• Maddow: About those expiring tax cuts.

Cenk and Alan Grayson mix it up.

Olbermann: Obama’s secret true religion:

Randy Brown (MN GOP) insults his way to Worst Person in the World!

The New American Intolerance:

• Olbermann: Religious freedom under fire.
• Jon with Mickey Mosque (via HorsesAss).
• Young Turks: Crazy Sarah slams “mosque” on FAUX News.
• Jon with Extremist Makeover (via HorsesAss).
• Former Bush Solicitor General Ted Olson as the voice of reason (via HorsesAss).
• Liberal Viewer: Media miss message on mosque.
• Cenk with Bill-O’s big fail on “mosque” issue.
• Olbermann: Olbermann with a special comment.
• Mark Fiore: Dog Boy and Mr. Dan discuss the (near) Ground Zero (non) Mosque.
• Pap: Mosques and the right-wing crazies.
• Young Turks: About that “Radical” Imam.
• Cenk with some ignorant Psychotalk from Rush Limbaugh.

Greenman: The “CO2 is plant food” crock:

Maddow is entertained by Sharron Angle.

Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.

Oh, this is just too precious…

Sarah Superstar may be on to something…

Yet somehow, I just don’t think we’re talking about the same “$hackle$” here…

Maybe Sarah “Shackles” Palin is just a big Janis Joplin fan? If that’s the case, then I surely wish Sarah Palin, Dr. Laura Slavessinger, and all the rest of the Republican Fundamentalists out there an infinite amount of “freedom.” Do you want fries with that?

BTW: What is it about bigotry that renders a person not only completely oblivious to irony, but actually hypnotically draws them toward creating phenomenal irony at levels beyond comprehension?

As Lt. Col. Mark Bieger points out:

“This is a historic mission!” he bellowed, struggling to be heard over the zoom of fighter jets and unmanned drones deployed to watch over the brigade’s convoy to Kuwait. “A truly historic end to seven years of war.”

The 4th Stryker Brigade, 2nd Infantry Division, which left Iraq this week, was the final U.S. combat brigade to be pulled out of the country, fulfilling the Obama administration’s pledge to end the U.S. combat mission by the end of August.

Obama was swept into office, in no small part owning to his promise to end the horrendous war in Iraq. But today, on this historic day, we got no aircraft carrier landing, no banner, no national address. As usual, minimal drama from Obama. What really disappointed me was the minimal press coverage of this monumental event. I mean, if anything, this really is THE BIG FUCKING DEAL! Instead we hear more debate over whether a community center with a particular religious affiliation should be allowed to be built a few blocks from Ground Zero. Seriously, according to Google News, there were twice as many stories about GM filing an IPO than the end of Operation Iraqi Freedom. Even NPR was surprisingly brief and nonchalant about the milestone.

Now I’m thinking I need to go back and check the news archive…perhaps Osama bin Laden was captured while I was on vacation and I missed the news….